Can Labour Look Forward to a Decade in Power?

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power.

Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin.

According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data, that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of votes Labour secured in this election is less than the party won in 2017 and 2019 under Jeremy Corbyn.  

This is exactly the kind of political sandcastle which James Kanagasooriam, Chief Research Officer at Focal Data (who came up with the notion of the ‘Red Wall’) wrote about during the election campaign.

Kanagasooriam said: “Britain stands on the cusp of a Labour supermajority. Normally we’d be talking about the next Labour decade or 15 years. Recent history has taught us to be wary of declaring supremacy and defeat too permanent. Political coalitions these days are more like sandcastles - impressive on the outside, but liable to be swept away at a moment's notice.”

So, to answer the original question, Labour cannot be confident that they can look forward to the ten years in power Keir Starmer spoke about at the start of the year.  As a result, it will require the new Government to go even further in a shorter period of time in showing that not only is it ‘delivering’ but that, crucially, what it is doing is having a tangible impact on people’s day to day lives. If it doesn’t the newly boosted ranks of the Parliamentary Labour Party will get nervous as we approach the next election.

For the Conservatives meanwhile, as they consider where next for what by any accounts is a shattered party, they could do worse than studying Focal Data’s polling looking at how the country voted.

What it shows is that the party haemorrhaged votes from the electoral coalition it secured in 2019. According to Focal Data, the Conservatives retained just half (52%) of the voters who backed the party under Boris Johnson in 2019. Among those who deserted them this time, 13% opted for Labour, while 23% went to Reform UK. Focal Data notes: “The party was squeezed in both directions, with roughly a quarter of voters moving left and a quarter moving right.”

Sober reading all round as the new Parliament begins to get to work.

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