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Marking your card for 7th May elections

In a little over a fortnight the UK will see the biggest set of elections this side of the next general election as voters decide who will make up the next Scottish Parliament, the Senedd in Wales and decide the futures for around 5,000 council seats across 136 councils in England. There will also be elections for a number of directly elected mayors. With so many stories likely to come out of them, here’s my attempt as setting a marker for what to look out for. Firstly, in Scotland, does the SNP manage to secure what would be just the second time any single party has achieved an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament? Whilst the most recent More in Common MRP poll for Scotland suggests the party might just be short of an outright majority, it was only a few weeks ago that YouGov’s MRP poll suggested the SNP could be on course for a five seat majority. If the SNP do repeat what Alex Salmond managed when leading the party at the 2011 elections to Holyrood, then expect th...
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Grim Polling for Labour Ahead of the Budget

  Ahead of what could constitute a make or break Budget for the Labour Government, in among analysing the economic numbers, politicians, political hacks and anoraks will be pouring over the public polling to understand the public climate going into, and then out of, the Budget. For those in Labour circles, the latest figures make, frankly, for grim reading. Firstly, Opinium’s latest poll for The Observer finds that when it comes to headline voting intentions, Reform remains well ahead of the other parties on 32%, followed by Labour on 19%, the Conservatives on 17%, the Liberal Democrats on 13% and the Greens on 12%. Opinium continues: “Public dissatisfaction with political leadership remains entrenched: Keir Starmer stays at -45, while Kemi Badenoch sits at -16 (+1). Nigel Farage’s ratings remain steadier, at -10. Rachel Reeves’ approval has ticked up but remains very low at -42. “This is the third poll in a row where Keir Starmer has been on -45, and marks over a 100 day ...
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The Conservative’s Dire Poll Numbers

With the Conservative conference well underway in Manchester, those attending would do well to avoid looking at the latest polls if they want to have a half decent gathering.   According to Opinium’s latest data , when it comes to headline voting intentions, just 16% of those questioned said they planned to vote Conservative at the next General Election. That’s behind Reform UK on 34% and Labour on 21%. The data suggests that 37% of those who voted Conservative in 2024 now plan to vote Reform UK. Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister just 14% said the Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch, behind Sir Keir Starmer on 23%. 51% said neither of them. In a sign of why the parties are adopting the tactics they are, immigration, according to the poll, is the voters single biggest issue, cited by 56% of those questioned. That raises to 72% among those who voted Conservative last year and 86% who voted Reform UK in the General Election. Asked to rate the Conservative...
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Labour’s Gloomy Poll Numbers

With Labour’s conference now well underway in Liverpool, the party faces two significant shadows hanging over it, both extraordinary in their own right just 14 months since the party won such a big landslide at the general election. Firstly, there is the threat the party faces from Reform, which dominated much of the Prime Minister’s start of conference interview on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme. According to two recent MRP polls, Reform UK would, if there were an election anytime soon, be in prime position to form the next Government (no that isn’t a typo). YouGov’s poll based on a sample of 13,000 voters gives Reform UK a central forecast of 311 seats in the House of Commons, up by 306 compared to the number they won in 2024. Labour would be on 144 seats, down 267, the Liberal Democrats on 78, up 6 and the Conservatives down 76 seats to 45.   Meanwhile, YouGov forecasts that the SNP would be on 37 seats, up 28 compared to the general election, with the G...
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Canada and Australia – Election Updates

With advance polling having started in Canada’s general election, formally taking place in a week’s time, and following a week in which leaders of the main political parties held their only debates, the Liberal Party led by Mark Carney continues to do well in the polls. According to CBC’s poll of polls , the Liberals are now on 43.3% of the vote with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 38.4%. The central forecast is for the Liberals to have an outright majority of 195 seats in the Canadian House of Commons with the Conservatives on 122. The Liberals now have an 84% chance of returning to power with an outright majority, and a 15% probability of being the single largest party in a hung parliament. The Conservatives, according to the polls, have just 1% chance of being the biggest single party. In Australia meanwhile, the incumbent Labor Party will be increasingly confident of winning the general election there in just a couple of weeks’ time. According to the latest...
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Carney and Albanese in Poll Positions in Canadian and Australian Elections

With Canadian’s due to vote in their general election in just two weeks’ time, the polling continues to point to the Liberal Party, led by Mark Carney, being on course to win.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals now stand on 44.3% of the vote, compared with the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, on 37.5%. Based on the data, the analysis suggests that the central forecast in terms of number of seats in the Canadian House of Commons is now 198 for the Liberals, clearly past the 172 seats needed for an outright majority.   This would be up from the 160 the party won under Justin Trudeau at the last election in 2021. The central forecast for the Conservatives is for 121 seats, just two more than the party won in 2021. The CBC data suggests that there is now an 87% chance of the Liberals winning a majority, a 12% chance of them being the biggest party in a hung parliament and just 1% chance of the Conservatives being the single largest party in the House of C...
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Liberals Grow Their Lead in Canada with Polls Tight Down Under

At the end of the second week of campaigning in Canada’s general election, the Liberals under the leadership of Mark Carney, are seeing their poll lead over the Conservatives increase.  According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals are averaging 44.2% in the polls, seven points ahead of the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre on 37.3%. CBC’s analysis suggests that the Liberals “could win 200 seats or more for the first time in its history on current polling numbers.” This, remember is a party which, at the start of the year, under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, was odds on favourite to be ejected from office after a decade in power. CBC’s analysis suggests that, based on its figures, there is now a 96% probability of the Liberals winning a majority in the Canadian House of Commons, with a 3% chance of it having the most seats in a hung Parliament. It suggests that there is just a 1% chance of the Conservatives winning the most seats in a hung Parliament. Meanwhile, dow...
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