Poll to Poll

With Labour’s conference now well underway in Liverpool, the party faces two significant shadows hanging over it, both extraordinary in their own right just 14 months since the party won such a big landslide at the general election. Firstly, there is the threat the party faces from Reform, which dominated much of the Prime Minister’s start of conference interview on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme. According to two recent MRP polls, Reform UK would, if there were an election anytime soon, be in prime position to form the next Government (no that isn’t a typo). YouGov’s poll based on a sample of 13,000 voters gives Reform UK a central forecast of 311 seats in the House of Commons, up by 306 compared to the number they won in 2024. Labour would be on 144 seats, down 267, the Liberal Democrats on 78, up 6 and the Conservatives down 76 seats to 45.   Meanwhile, YouGov forecasts that the SNP would be on 37 seats, up 28 compared to the general election, with the G...