Labour’s Gloomy Poll Numbers

With Labour’s conference now well underway in Liverpool, the party faces two significant shadows hanging over it, both extraordinary in their own right just 14 months since the party won such a big landslide at the general election.

Firstly, there is the threat the party faces from Reform, which dominated much of the Prime Minister’s start of conference interview on the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg programme.

According to two recent MRP polls, Reform UK would, if there were an election anytime soon, be in prime position to form the next Government (no that isn’t a typo).

YouGov’s poll based on a sample of 13,000 voters gives Reform UK a central forecast of 311 seats in the House of Commons, up by 306 compared to the number they won in 2024. Labour would be on 144 seats, down 267, the Liberal Democrats on 78, up 6 and the Conservatives down 76 seats to 45.  Meanwhile, YouGov forecasts that the SNP would be on 37 seats, up 28 compared to the general election, with the Greens up 3 on 7 and Plaid Cymru up 2 seats on 6.

To add to the gloom for the Labour faithful, YouGov notes: “The vast majority of the additional Reform UK gains have come at the expense of Labour.”

Meanwhile, More in Common’s latest MRP poll provides an equally remarkable set of findings based on questioning 19,520 voters.

It projects Reform UK securing 373 seats in the Commons, up 368 compared to the general election with Labour on just 90, down 321 and the Conservatives down to 41 seats, down 80. The data suggests the Liberal Democrats would be down 3 seats on 69, with the SNP up 25 to 34 and Plaid Cymru unchanged on 4. The Greens are forecast to secure 6 seats, up 2 from the general election.

More in Common notes that for Labour: “This would be the smallest parliamentary Labour Party since 1931, with most of the Cabinet losing their seats.”

Unsurprisingly perhaps, the above polling will do little to quash the second shadow hanging over Labour’s gathering in Liverpool, namely the future of its Leader, Sir Keir Starmer, coupled with the latest findings from Ipsos Mori.

According to the data, just 13% of people are not satisfied with the way the Prime Minister is doing his job, compared to 79% who are dissatisfied, giving him a net rating of -66. To rub salt into the wound, Ipsos Mori notes: “This is the lowest satisfaction rating recorded by Ipsos for any Prime Minister going back to 1977, worse than previous lows recorded by Rishi Sunak just months before the general election (-59, April 2024), and John Major (-59, August 1994).”

When it comes to the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, as with Starmer, just 13% of those questioned said they were satisfied with the way she is doing her job, compared to 69% who said they were dissatisfied, giving her a net rating of -56. Ipsos Mori notes: “Her satisfaction scores are comparable to Kwasi Kwarteng in October 2022, just after the mini-budget (12% satisfied, 65% dissatisfied, net -53).”

Ipsos Mori goes on to note that: “Government satisfaction has also declined since June, with 12% satisfied (-4 vs June) and 82% dissatisfied (+6), net of -70. Among Labour’s own supporters, only 42% are satisfied with the government and 47% with Keir Starmer.”

To add insult to injury to Starmer, polling of Labour Party members by Survation for Labour List has found that over half (53%) want a new leader by the time of the next general election, with 31% saying they want Starmer to stay in place and 16% saying they did not know.  

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