A Feast of Polling

Covid-19, the future of the UK as it currently exists, Brexit and the long term future of the Prime Minster.

By anyone’s standards, Boris Johnson’s in tray is immense. With that in mind, a number of polls published over the past few days will be proving plenty of food for thought for Number 10.

COVID-19

Ipsos Mori has published polling which should embolden those in government who feel that the principle objective needs to be to control the spread of the virus (as opposed to ensuring the economy remains as open as possible).

The online poll of 1,879 adults in Britain which was undertaken between 9th and 10th October found that:

70% were concerned about the risk that coronavirus posed to themselves, with 86% concerned about the risk it posed to the country as a whole.

62% said that the country needed to take whatever measures are necessary to control the spread of coronavirus and reduce the number of deaths whilst 27% indicated that the country needed to relax measures to control coronavirus now, as they felt they were doing more harm than good.

Asked want  measures they supported to control the virus:

  • 81% supported making it compulsory to wear face masks when in shops or on public transport.
  • 76% supported the two week quarantine when returning from countries with a high number of cases.
  • 76% supported encouraging companies to tell staff to work from home.
  • 75% supported local lockdowns in regions with rising cases of coronavirus. 
  • 65% supported the Government’s ‘Rule of Six’.
  • 56% supported curfews to close pubs, bars and restaurants in the evening.

45% said they felt current measures in response to the virus were not strict enough with 33% saying they were about right.

Asked about potential future measures:

  • 73% supported local lockdowns in regions where coronavirus cases are rising.
  • 68% supported local lockdowns where they live if cases of the virus are rising.
  • 63% supported changing the ‘Rule of Six’ to six people from no more than two households.
  • 61% supported banning all travel into and out of the country.
  • 51% supported a national lockdown for a week during the October half term.
  • 50% supported closing all university campuses.

Other potential measures to respond to the virus received a more mixed reception. 43% supported the closure of all restaurants and bars, with 37% opposing such a move. 43% supported another national lockdown, with 40% opposing this. 38% supported closing all non-essential shops, 37% supported lifting restrictions for low risk groups, whilst maintaining restrictions and shielding for high risk groups whilst 36% supported closing all schools.

Future of the United Kingdom

With crucial elections next year to the Scottish Parliament, Savnta ComRes has published a poll of 1,003 Scottish adults aged 16+ who were questioned online on 9th October.

In respect of voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament, asked how they would vote in the constituency vote, 50% said the SNP, 23% said Conservative, 18% said Labour, 6% said Liberal Democrat and 2% said other.

When it comes to the regional list vote, 41% said they would vote SNP, 21% said Conservative, 18% said Labour, 11% said Green, 7% said Liberal Democrat and 1% said other.

Running these figures through the Election Polling website if such a result came to fruition, the SNP would secure a majority again at Holyrood. The total number of seats each party would get, with the change from the 2016 elections in brackets, would be:

SNP – 65 (+2)

Conservatives – 25 (-6)

Labour – 21 (-3)

Green – 11 (+5)

Liberal Democrats – 7 (+2)

The same poll by Savanta ComRes found that 53% would support voting for independence in a hypothetical second referendum with 47% opposing it.  

Brexit

New research published this week for the British Social Attitudes Survey found that:

62% believe that migrants from the EU should have to apply to come to Britain rather than enjoy free movement.

60% think care workers should have priority in the immigration queue.

51% believe the economy will be worse off as a result of leaving the EU.

51% think that being in the EU has undermined Britain’s ability to make its own laws.

80% want British airlines to continue to follow EU rules on flight compensation and 69% want to follow EU rules on the costs of mobile phone calls made abroad.

75% oppose the sale of chlorinated chicken and 88% are opposed to hormone treated beef. 59% favour keeping the EU ban on growing GM crops.

66% are in favour of continuing to pay subsidies to farmers after Britain leaves the Common Agricultural Policy, with 33% opposed.

Professor Sir John Curtice, Senior Research Fellow at the National Centre for Social Research and Professor of Politics at the University of Strathclyde, said: 

“Our research challenges some of the myths that surround the Brexit debate. Voters did react adversely to the Brexit stalemate - but this reaction was to be found just as much among Remain voters as Leave supporters, while the experience seems to have stimulated rather than depressed voters’ engagement in politics. Meanwhile, although most voters wish to see an end to freedom of movement - including many who voted Remain - the government’s immigration proposals would appear to be rather more restrictive than many voters would like, while there does not appear to be a widespread public clamour for a less strict regulatory regime than the one Britain has enjoyed as an EU member.”

Political Polling

Opinium has published its latest Political Report with fieldwork having taken place between 8th and 9th October. It finds that:

When it comes to voting intentions, the Conservatives and Labour are both on 40%, with the Conservatives up 1 percentage point compared to a fortnight ago and Labour down 2 points. The Liberal Democrats are on 6%.

33% say Keir Starmer would make the best Prime Minister (down 3 points from a fortnight ago) compared to 32% who said Boris Johnson.

50% disapprove of the Government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 31% indicating their approval. 68% felt the government has not acted fast enough to prevent the spread of the virus.

The Chancellor, Rishi Sunak is the only senior Minister with a net positive rating of +23% when it comes to their handling of COVID-19.  The Prime Minister has a net approval rating of -16% with the Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, having a net approval of -17%.

Those polled were asked also about their perceptions of how senior Ministers had handled their role in government in responding to COVID-19. When it came to the Prime Minister, the top perception, agreed by 40% of respondents, was that he was ‘out of his depth’. For the Chancellor, the top perception, supported by 37% of those questioned was that he had ‘acted competently’. For the Health Secretary, as with the Prime Minister, the top perception, backed by 37% of respondents, was that he was out of his depth.

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