Is Scottish Independence an Inevitability?

In any normal political week that had not been dominated by Brexit and COVID-19, the eyes of much of the British media and political establishment would have turned to Scotland following what can only be dubbed as an eye popping poll by Ipsos Mori of voters in Scotland.

By way of background Ipsos MORI Scotland interviewed a representative sample of 1,045 adults aged 16+ across Scotland. Interviews were conducted by telephone between the 2nd and 9th October 2020.

Voting Intention

Firstly, with voters set to elect a new Scottish Parliament next year, the poll found that the headline voting intentions for the constituency vote of the ballot were SNP 58%, Conservatives 19%, Labour 13%, the Liberal Democrats 8% and others on 2%.

When it comes to the regional list section of the vote the results were SNP 47%, Conservatives 19%, Labour 13%, Green 9%, Liberal Democrats 8% and others on 3%.

According to the Election Polling website if these figures were to be a reality in next year’s elections to Holyrood, the number of seats for each party, with changes from 2016 in brackets, would be SNP 73 (+10), Conservatives 22 (-9), Labour 15 (-9), Green 10 (+4) and Liberal Democrats 9 (+4).

Satisfaction with Leaders

What is noticeable in the poll is just how much the personal popularity of Nicola Sturgeon is fuelling the SNP’s success. With a net approval rating of +49 she is head and shoulders above other leaders as can be seen below:

Keir Starmer: +16

Willie Rennie (Leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats): -1

Douglas Ross (Leader of the Scottish Conservatives): -17

Richard Leonard (Leader of Scottish Labour): -25

Boris Johnson: -58

Whilst 93% of those saying they plan to vote SNP next year have expressed satisfaction with Nicola Sturgeon and 66% of Conservatives have expressed satisfaction with Douglas Ross, just 40% of those saying they will vote Labour next year are satisfied with Richard Leonard, with 33% dissatisfied and 27% saying they don’t know. For many within Labour it will provide further ammunition to calls for Leonard to step aside.

Boris Johnson meanwhile does not come out greatly. Whilst 56% of those planning to vote Conservative next year have expressed approval in him, 38% have said they are dissatisfied. Kier Starmer performs much better though, with 66% of Labour supporters in Scotland expressing satisfaction with him and just 12% being dissatisfied. It will beg the question as to whether for Labour Starmer would be better placed to take the fight to the SNP than the Leader of Scottish Labour.

Independence

Whilst much of the above might not come as a complete surprise, it is the views of those polled in respect of independence that will prove the most sobering reading for those wanting Scotland to remain in the UK.

Despite Boris Johnson’s instances that Scotland should not be holding another referendum, it is highly unlikely that he could maintain that stance if, as seems likely, the SNP win a majority next year at the Scottish Parliament. According to the poll 64% felt that in such a scenario the UK Government should enable a further independence referendum to take place within the next five years.

And what about the million dollar question? Among all those saying they would be likely to vote in another referendum, 55% said they would back independence with 39% saying they would vote against. When narrowed down to just those saying they would be likely to vote and who expressed a voting intention, 58% backed independence with 42% opposing it. To put that in context, in the 2014 referendum, 55% of those voting said no to independence with 45% supporting it.

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