State of the US Election Race

In a little over a weeks’ time we should (and I stress should) know who has won the US presidential election. But after the final debate between Joe Biden and Donald Trump last Thursday and with the candidates that their supporters bouncing from one swing state to another, the question is what the state of the race is?

A new ABC News/Ipsos poll out today helpfully sheds some light on the situation.

Summarising the findings, its analysis notes that “views of the two candidates are largely unchanged since the Conventions.” It continues: “President Trump does appear to be rallying some of the groups who traditionally support him, but favourability towards him remains decidedly negative. Joe Biden, meanwhile, continues to break nearly even with as many viewing him favourably as unfavourable. This comes as the large majority of Americans continue to be concerned about potential coronavirus infection.”

According to the poll, 35% of respondents said they had a favourable view of Trump, compared to 57% who had an unfavourable one. This compares to 31% who had a favourable impression of him, and 59% who had an unfavourable impression when the same question was asked by IPSOS just after the Republican Convention in August.

Joe Biden is faring better, with 44% having a favourable impression of him (down from 45% just after the Democratic Convention) and 43% saying they had an unfavourable view (up from 40% just after his party’s Convention).

Most worryingly for the Trump campaign which has been seeking to downplay the seriousness of the pandemic, just 38% of those polled said they approved of the way Donald Trump had handled the response to COVID-19, compared to 61% who disapproved.  78% meanwhile indicated that they were concerned that they or someone they know will be infected with the virus, compared with 22% who said they were not concerned.

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