Liberals Grow Their Lead in Canada with Polls Tight Down Under

At the end of the second week of campaigning in Canada’s general election, the Liberals under the leadership of Mark Carney, are seeing their poll lead over the Conservatives increase. 

According to CBC’s poll of polls the Liberals are averaging 44.2% in the polls, seven points ahead of the Conservatives led by Pierre Poilievre on 37.3%. CBC’s analysis suggests that the Liberals “could win 200 seats or more for the first time in its history on current polling numbers.” This, remember is a party which, at the start of the year, under the leadership of Justin Trudeau, was odds on favourite to be ejected from office after a decade in power.

CBC’s analysis suggests that, based on its figures, there is now a 96% probability of the Liberals winning a majority in the Canadian House of Commons, with a 3% chance of it having the most seats in a hung Parliament. It suggests that there is just a 1% chance of the Conservatives winning the most seats in a hung Parliament.

Meanwhile, down under, YouGov Australia’s latest polling continues to point to a tight fight at the end of the first week of the general election campaign there.

When it comes to the primary vote, the ruling Labor party, led by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is on 30%, with the Liberal/National Coalition, led by Liberal Leader Peter Dutton on 35%. The Greens are on 13%, One Nation on 7% and the Independents on 10%.

However, when it comes to the two-party preferred preference, Labor leads the Coalition by 51% to 49% according to YouGov.

Whilst Anthony Albanese has a net satisfaction rating of -6, Peter Dutton is now on -15, his lowest rating ever recorded by YouGov Australia.  

By a margin of 45% to 38%, Anthony Albanese leads as the preferred Prime Minister, compared to Peter Dutton.

Paul Smith, Director of Public Data at YouGov, Australia has said of the poll: “Peter Dutton’s personal satisfaction ratings have plummeted to their lowest level, following his embrace of controversial Trump-style policies such as banning work-from-home arrangements and proposing to sack 40,000 public sector workers. These actions have clearly impacted his public perception, contributing to a significant drop in satisfaction.”

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