Tough Polling for the Conservatives

As the Conservative faithful meet for their annual conference, albeit virtually, it provides an important opportunity to assess where the party now stands, less than a year after it won a landslide victory at the General Election with an 80 seat majority in the House of Commons.

Thankfully, on cue, the former Treasurer and Deputy Chair of the Conservative Party, turned pollster, Lord Ashcroft, has released the results of one of his new mega polls which does not make for comfortable reading for the Prime Minister or the Conservative Party more widely.

By way of background the 8,051 adults in Great Britain were interviewed online between 17^th and 24^th September 2020, with the data having been weighted to be representative of all adults in Great Britain.

Impact of COVID-19

63% of all those questioned said that they felt the Government had under-reacted to the threat of COVID-19, including 50% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 and 82% of Labour voters. Among those who switched from Labour to Conservative last year, 67% felt the Government had under-reacted.

59% of all voters questioned felt lockdown restrictions had been lifted too quickly given the continued risk from the virus. This included 49% of Conservative voters, 75% of Labour voters and 64% of Labour to Conservative switchers.

With the Prime Minister having today admitted on the BBC’s Andrew Marr programme that there was a trade-off to be made between measures to control the virus and protecting the economy and people’s livelihoods, 48% of all voters questioned said they felt not enough being done to combat the virus was the biggest danger. Just 22% felt that too much being done in the name of combatting the virus was the bigger danger. Whilst Labour voters and Labour to Conservative switchers were clearly of the view that the biggest risk was not doing enough to combat the virus, 36% of Conservatives agreed with this, compared to 31% who said they were worried about too much action being taken.

The Government can however take some solace from the fact that 45% of those surveyed said it had done “a reasonable job in extremely difficult circumstances”, the same proportion who said that it had “handled things so badly that things turned out much worse than they needed to be”. Whilst 19% of Conservative voters said that the Government had handled things badly, just 18% of Labour voters said the Government had done a reasonable job. Interestingly, 72% of Labour to Conservative switchers at last year’s election said the Government had done a “reasonable job”.

38% of all voters, and three quarters of Labour voters from last year said they felt a Labour Government led by Keir Starmer would have made a better job of handling the pandemic and its impact that the Conservatives under Boris Johnson.  The Ashcroft report goes on to note: “Most of those who switched from Labour to the Conservatives at the 2019 election thought Starmer would have done worse (38%) or no better or worse (25%) than Johnson; only 16% think he would have done better.”

Brexit

Overall 30% of voters, including 57% of Conservatives and 48% of Labour to Conservative switchers said that during the course of the negotiations to strike a trade deal between the UK and the European Union, the most important thing was to make sure the EU did not have a say over UK laws and regulations or our trade with other non-EU countries.

42% of voters overall, including three quarters of Labour voters and those who voted to remain in the EU said the most important thing was to ensure a deal that protects jobs and living standards.

13% of voters – including one in five Conservatives and Leave voters – said the most important thing was to get it over and done with one way or another so Britain can focus on other things.

Position of Parties and their Leaders

Voters were asked how positive or negative they felt about a variety of political leaders, with +50 being very positive and -50 being very negative.

The highest rated politician was Nicola Sturgeon who secured a score of +12 among Scottish voters, followed by the Welsh First Minister, Mark Drakeford, who scored +3 among Welsh voters. Just to make Boris Johnson feel uncomfortable, the only other politician to achieve a net positive score was the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, on +2.

Labour’s Leader, Keir Starmer, secured a neutral mean score of zero, slightly higher than the -6 scored by the Labour Party as a whole. Boris Johnson meanwhile achieved -11 with the Conservative Party on -12. The Liberal Democrat leader, Ed Davey was on -19, with this party as a whole scoring -18.

The report continues: “Starmer received a higher score among 2019 Labour voters (+20) than Johnson did among 2019 Conservatives (+15). Labour-Conservative switchers gave Johnson a slightly lower score (+8) than Tories as a whole, but this was higher than the score they gave Starmer (-10). Rishi Sunak received a higher score among Labour (-8) and Lib Dem (+2) voters than Johnson.”

Those questioned were asked who would make the best Prime Minister when asked to choose between Keir Starmer and Boris Johnson. 37% said Starmer, with 30% saying Boris Johnson and 33% being unsure. A quarter of those who voted Conservative in 2019 said they were not sure, with a further one in ten saying Keir Starmer. 78% of Labour voters and two thirds of Liberal Democrats opted for him. Labour-Conservative switchers went for Boris Johnson by 48% to 20%, with one in three saying they were not sure.

Interestingly, whilst two thirds of those who voted to remain in the EU said Starmer, just 53% of those who voted leave opted for Boris Johnson.

When forced to choose between a Conservative government with Boris Johnson as Prime Minister and a Labour government with Keir Starmer as PM (with no option for ‘don’t know’), respondents chose Labour under Starmer by 53% to 47%. The report continues: “Those who switched from Labour to the Conservatives in 2019 were less likely than Tory voters as a whole to say they still preferred a Tory government: 69% of them said this, with 31% saying they would now prefer a Labour government with Starmer as PM.”

With the Labour Party now declaring itself to be under new management, 59% of voters said they felt that Keir Starmer was a very different kind of Leader from Jeremy Corbyn. That said, and with an indication of the challenge Labour has more broadly, most of these said they felt the Party as a whole had not changed much since Starmer became leader.