Was this the Week that Sealed Boris Johnson’s Fate?

 As we look back at the week just gone, other than a momentous election result in the United States, history in the UK might also look back on it as the week in which Boris Johnson’s fortunes turned for the worse. 

Why do I say that? It all hinges on a combination of events and polling as outlined below.

Brexit and the US Elections

It is no secret that post Brexit, Boris Johnson’s Government was most hopeful of being able to secure a trade deal quickly with a United States under the leadership of Donald Trump.  In Trump’s own words, a deal under him as President would be “fantastic and big”.

Under Joe Biden however, prospects for a quick or comprehensive post-Brexit trade deal are severely diminished for four key reasons:


1.    A sense within the Democrat establishment that Boris Johnson is essentially Trump light. After the UK General Election last year Biden himself dubbed the Prime Minister “a physical and emotional clone of the president”. This was reinforced on CNN yesterday with one presenter describing Johnson as being “in the mould of Donald Trump”.

 

2.    Linked to the above, the Biden camp is unlikely to forget the caveats that the UK Government has attached to welcoming his election. Tweeting last night, whilst congratulating the Biden-Harris ticket, the UK Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab nevertheless  asserted somewhat opaquely that “some of the processes are still playing out”. On Sky News today he also had a slightly nuanced response when he was asked if all votes should be counted in a democratic election. He replied: “in principle, yes of course” before suggesting that he was being sucked into the legal dispute over whether votes have been properly counted in the US election.


3.    As the Sunday Times has noted, Biden has not forgotten Boris Johnson’s comments made during the EU referendum when he suggested that President Obama’s decision to remove from the Oval Office a bust of Winston Churchill was a “symbol of the part-Kenyan president’s ancestral dislike of the British empire”.


4.    And finally, the Biden camp and Democrats more widely have serve misgivings about the impact that the UK Government’s Internal Market Bill, currently being considered in the House of Lords, will have on the peace process in Northern Ireland. In a clear warning to Boris Johnson Biden tweeted in September: “We can’t allow the Good Friday Agreement that brought peace to Northern Ireland to become a casualty of Brexit. Any trade deal between the U.S. and U.K. must be contingent upon respect for the Agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period.”

With the prospect of a trade deal between the UK and the US now looking much more difficult, the pressure will mount on the UK Government to secure a trade agreement with the EU soon. This will now play out with the EU fully aware that Boris Johnson is in a much weaker position without Donald Trump in office. And what of the state of discussions? Following a phone call yesterday with Johnson, whilst confirming talks will continue, the EU Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen tweeted: “Some progress has been made, but large differences remain especially on level playing field and fisheries.”

COVID-19

That the public is not so content with the UK Government’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic is nothing new. Polling by Opinium points to 51% of people disapproving of its handling of the crisis, with 32% approving of it.

What this week has shown, in the House of Commons vote on the regulations to introduce the new month-long national lockdown, is that Conservative MPs are prepared to make public their disquiet at the Prime Minister.

In total, 32 Conservative MPs voted against the regulations, a higher figure than many expected, and which included a former Conservative Party leader, Iain Duncan-Smith. The former Prime Minister Theresa May meanwhile abstained in the vote. The Government’s Whips will know that the rebellion will be much higher if, by 2nd December, Ministers feel compelled to propose an extension to the lockdown.

The restlessness on the backbenches will not have been helped by Number 10 admitting that there had been an error in the way that some data was presented to make the case for the second national lockdown. 

Scotland’s Place in the Union

The week just gone has once again highlighted the pressure that UK as an entity continues to face.

Polling by Survation points to 54% of Scots supporting Scotland becoming an independent country, the 12th poll in a row to do so.

With the SNP continuing to poll miles ahead of other parties ahead of next year’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, one wonders just how wise it was for the Scottish Secretary, to  suggest that that another independence referendum might not take place for another 25 or 40 years.

Labour Overtakes the Conservatives

That Keir Starmer has been polling better than Boris Johnson is not new. What is though is the extent to which polls out this week point to the Labour Party more broadly beginning to pull clear from the Conservative Party.

Data gathered by YouGov suggested that when it comes to voting intentions, Labour are on 40% with the Conservatives on 35%. Last week YouGov had them neck and neck on 38%.

Polling for Opinium meanwhile puts Labour on 42% with the Conservatives on 38%, the biggest Labour lead the polling company has recorded for Labour since the election.

According to a report by Nigel Nelson, Political Editor for the Sunday Mirror, some Conservative MPs are beginning actively to encourage their colleagues to topple Boris Johnson from the leadership of he party. How extensive such moves might be at this stage is questionable, but this week will not have placated those who are beginning to raise doubts about the Prime Minister’s ability to do the job and tackle the challenges now mounting in his in tray.

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