Do Voters Regret Voting to Leave the EU?

 “Two big issues of 2020 have been COVID and Brexit” the former Conservative Justice Secretary, David Gauke has said on Twitter. He goes on to note: “Occasionally they have touched but generally they have been separate. But now, like a TV series finale, the plots are brought together.”

When it comes to Brexit, a week on Friday the UK is scheduled to end all formal ties with the European Union as we end the transition period. And yet, we are still not much closer to knowing whether a trade and security deal will be reached. But what does the polling tell us?

According to Savanta ComRes, 49% of those polled in the UK expect no deal to be reached, with 18% expecting a deal. 37% also believe that the EU has the advantage in the talks, compared to just 24% who say the UK does. That said, respondents believe that the UK is best prepared for a no deal, with 33% saying it best prepared compared to 26% saying the EU is.  

YouGov also has some interesting polling on the issue.  The headline is that by 51% to 40% those surveyed now feel voting to leave the EU was the wrong thing to do.

Whilst 88% of those who voted to remain in the 2016 referendum feel that leaving the EU was the wrong thing to do, 8% believe it is now the right thing. Among those who voted to leave however, although 82% still believe that leaving is the right thing to do, 11% now believe it was the wrong decision.

To provide some context, Fintan Smith, a Political Researcher at YouGov has noted:


“Since YouGov began asking this question in 2016, there has been an overall shift from right decision to wrong decision. Up until May 2017, just after then Prime Minister Theresa May called the 2017 general election, we consistently found that more believed that leaving the EU was the right decision than wrong.


“However, the margin between right vs wrong then began to narrow, and since the end of August 2017 we have consistently found that a greater proportion of Brits believe leaving the EU to be the wrong decision than the right one. Minus a few minor spikes, most notably following the withdrawal agreement passing through the Commons, the proportion who believe it to be the right decision has continued to fall gradually whilst those who believe it to be the wrong decision has continued to rise."

Interestingly, whilst Flintan observes that views among remain voters have remained “relatively consistent” since the 2016 referendum, “among Leave voters there has been more of a change in opinion over the last four years.”  He continues:


“While the proportion who believe leaving to still be the right decision has fallen from 90% in August of 2016 down to the low 80s, the proportion believing it to be the wrong thing to do has risen from 2-4% to 10%-13%.”

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