EU-UK Trade Deal a Mixed Bag for Voters

With Parliament set to approve the Brexit deal agreed between the EU and the UK on Christmas Eve, one of the UK’s most authoritative pollsters, Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University, has delivered his verdict on whether it delivers what the voters want. 

In a blog post for the What the UK Thinks website he provides a detailed breakdown of provisions within the agreement and how it stacks up against polling data. However, his three key headlines are as follows:

1.     The decision to end freedom of movement, taken by Theresa May shortly after she became Prime Minister, “clearly accords with the preference of a majority of voters.”

 

2.     Whilst Professor Curtice notes that “most voters were wanting to maintain tariff-free trade with the EU”, he warns that “the scope of the trade agreement may be somewhat narrower than many voters were anticipating, not least perhaps in failing to make provision for financial services.”

3.     Thirdly, he notes: “the priority given by the UK government in the trade talks to minimising the extent to which the UK has to follow EU regulatory standards does not seem to be shared by voters. On various aspects of consumer and environmental regulation – though not labour market standards – voters have been found to be willing to retain EU regulation, presumably because the provisions in question are felt to be beneficial. The political scope for the UK to diverge significantly from EU regulation in the post-Brexit world may prove to be rather less than both the UK government hopes and the EU seemingly fears.”

Based on the above analysis, one can safely conclude that in terms of the public’s expectations the agreement struck on Christmas Eve represents a mixed bag.

Meanwhile, as the year draws to a close, The I today reports on figures devised by Professor Curtice on the state of the political parties.  

Based on a poll of polls the Conservatives and Labour are now on level-pegging. The paper notes that “a weighted average of December’s opinion polls puts the Tories and Labour on 39 per cent each”, although the calculation was made before confirmation of the Brexit deal.

For other parties, the news is somewhat bleaker, with the paper observing that the Liberal Democrats are “languishing” on seven per cent at the end of 2020 with the Green Party on five per cent.

Looking at how the polls have shifted over the year, the paper notes: “Tory support fell by seven percentage points over the year, while Labour under its new leader Sir Keir Starmer advanced by nine points.  Tory backing grew to 50 per cent during the early part of 2020 with Labour preoccupied by its protracted leadership contest and the Prime Minister enjoying a “Boris bounce” immediately after the pandemic struck and he was hospitalised with the virus.”

It goes on to say: “Labour’s backing has advanced steadily since Sir Keir’s election in April, when it was 19 points behind the Tories, and the parties have been virtually tied in the polls since October.”