The UK is in a Fragile State

 As 2020 draws to an end, one of the underlying political themes has been the fragile state of the United Kingdom. A combination of Brexit and responses to the COVID-19 pandemic have led many to question if the union as it is currently constituted can survive.

Polls out this week have demonstrated clearly how the UK is now being pulled in different directions.

In Scotland, the trend has been clear for some time – sustained support for independence.

Earlier this week, polling by Survation found that 52% of those questioned supported independence, with 48% opposing it.  It was the 16th poll in a row to put support for independence in the lead.

Ahead of elections in May meanwhile to the Scottish Parliament the SNP continues to maintain a dominant lead.

In respect of the constituency vote, the SNP are on 53% with Labour and the Conservatives both on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and other parties on 1%.

For the regional list vote, the SNP are on 41%, the Conservatives are on 18% with Labour on 20%. The Scottish Green Party was on 10%, the Liberal Democrats on 7%, the Brexit Party on 1%, UKIP on 1% and other parties secured the support of less than 1% of respondents.

According to the Election Polling website such results would give the SNP a clear majority at Holyrood. The number of seats for each party, with changes from 2016 in brackets, would be:

SNP – 70 (+7)

Labour – 25 (+1)

Conservatives – 20 (-11)

Green – 9 (+3)

Liberal Democrats – 5 (No Change)

Further polling by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman newspaper provided the 17th poll in a row that put support for independence not just in the lead, but with a healthy one at that. When those who are undecided were taken out of the equation 58% supported independence with 42% opposing it.  

As with Survation, the SNP enjoys a healthy lead also when it comes to voting intentions for the Scottish Parliamentary elections next year.

For the constituency vote the figures are the SNP on 55%, the Conservatives on 20%, Labour on 16%, the Liberal Democrats on 6% and other parties on 3%.

For the regional list vote the figures are SNP 42%, Conservatives 20%, Labour 17%, Green Party 12%, Liberal Democrats 7% and others parties on 3%.

According to Election Polling such results would again give the SNP a clear majority at Holyrood. Again, the number of seats for each party, with changes from 2016 in brackets, would be:

SNP – 71 (+8)

Conservative – 23 (-8)

Labour – 19 (-5)

Green – 11 (+5)

Liberal Democrats – 5 (No Change)

YouGov meanwhile has published polling looking at the attitudes of people in Wales to the way the Welsh and UK Governments have handled the COVID-19 pandemic.  

According to the poll confidence in the Welsh government’s handling of the crises has, in its words, “plummeted” since November. 47% said the Welsh government was doing a bad job, up from 28%. 45% feel it is doing a good job, down from 66%.

Trust in the Welsh First Minister has also taken a nose dive with 44% saying they trust Mark Drakeford a great deal or a fair amount, compared to 45% saying they do not trust him. To put that in context, in November he was trusted by 55% of those who responded, with 33% who said at the time that they did no trust him.

All that said the Welsh Government is still polling better than the UK Government. According to YouGov, 62% of the Welsh public feel the UK Government is handling the pandemic badly, with 67% saying they do not trust Boris Johnson to make the right decisions.

YouGov continues: “Furthermore, half of adults in Wales (53%) still favour the approach taken in Wales to tackle the virus compared to just 15% who would prefer the approach across the border in England. A quarter (25%), say they would not be happy with either.”

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