Budget 2021 – What's the Political Backdrop?

That the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, faces an unenviable task as he prepares to deliver his second Budget this week is perhaps the understatement of the century. As the BBC has noted, as a result of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, the country’s debt, as a percentage of GDP stands at 99.4%, the highest it has been since 1963.

Government borrowing this year has also reached £270.6bn so far, with the Office for Budget Responsibility suggesting it could total £393.5bn by the end of the financial year in March, the highest level for any year since the Second World War.

Against this backdrop, it is little wonder that the Chancellor is softening the country up for bad news, having pledged to “level with people” about the state of the economy and the measures that will be needed to get the public finances onto a more healthy trajectory.   

But among the blizzard of economic and financial statistics we can expect over the coming week, what is the political background to the Budget? If the latest polling by Opinium for the Observer is to be believed, it is looking much better for the Conservatives.

The poll, carried out between the 24th and 26th February. has found that in respect of headline voting intentions, the Conservatives now have a 7 point lead over Labour, the largest they have had since July last year. The Conservatives are on 43%, up 1 point since a fortnight ago with Labour down 1 point to 36%. The Liberal Democrats are on 7%.

In respect of the leaderships of Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, Johnson is close to entering positive territory again, with a net satisfaction score of -2. Starmer stands at +5.  That said 33% believe Johnson would make the best Prime Minister, ahead of the 27% who said the same about Starmer.

Support for the Government’s handling of the pandemic has also increased by 3 points over the past fortnight, now standing at 36%, compared to 45% who disapprove of the job it has been doing.  47% believe that the roadmap out of current lockdown restrictions is about right, although 58% believe that it is unlikely that all limits on social contact will be removed by the end of June as indicated in the Government’s plans.

The Conservatives also continue to enjoy a lead over Labour in terms of who the public most refer to handle the economy. 39% opt for Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, with just 25% opting for Keir Starmer and the Shadow Chancellor, Anneliese Dodds the most.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Buyers Regret Over Brexit?

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...
Read more

Can Labour Look Forward to a Decade in Power?

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power. Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin. According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data , that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of ...
Read more

Rishi’s Ratings Sink

Rishi Sunak has registered his weakest favourability ratings since becoming Prime Minister according to new polling by Ipsos Mori. It reports that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net favourability score of -7, Rishi Sunak’s has sunk to -19. With Boris Johnson continuing to breathe down Rishi Sunak’s neck, Ipsos goes on to note: “More than half of 2019 Conservative voters are favourable to Johnson (55%) while 49% say the same for Sunak. Overall, among 2019 Conservative voters, Johnson scores +29 while Sunak scores +23.   However, Johnson’s lead owes more to falling ratings for Mr Sunak rather than improving ratings for the former PM.” Looking at the parties as a whole, Labour has a net favourability rating of +2 with the Conservatives on -29. When it coms to Brexit, 55% of respondents told Ipsos that leaving the EU had had a negative impact on the country, with just 21% saying it had been positive. It continues: “If we subtract the proportion saying Brexit has...
Read more