Support for Scottish Independence Dips Four Points

Support for Scottish independence has fallen by four percentage points according to a new poll out this week by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman newspaper.

The figures show that when ‘don’t knows’ are included, 47% of Scottish voters support independence, 42% oppose it and 10% are undecided. It is the first time since December that support for Scotland going it alone has fallen below 50%.

When those who do not know how they would vote in another referendum are excluded, support for independence is at 53%, with 47% opposing it.

Despite the drop-in support, it nevertheless represents the 21st poll in a row which has seen support for independence in the lead. However. providing a glimmer of hope to those who want to keep Scotland in the Union, Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University has argued in The Herald  that the independence movement has "at best been treading water during the winter".

Meanwhile, despite an ongoing spat between the current First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon and her predecessor, Alex Salmond, the SNP maintains a healthy lead ahead of this May’s elections to Holyrood.

The poll finds that when it comes to the constituency ballot, the SNP is set to be backed by 54% of Scottish voters, with 43% planning to vote for it in the regional list ballot. This would see the SNP secure 71 seats in the Scottish Parliament, a majority of 13.

The Scottish Conservatives, are, according to the poll, on course to see 24 MSPs elected, down from the 31 elected in 2016. They would do so thanks to the 23% of Scots who told Savanta ComRes that they plan to vote for the party in the constituency list section of the vote, with 21% saying they would support it on the regional list.

Meanwhile, with the Scottish Labour Party in the middle of its leadership election, 16% of respondents said they would vote for the party on the constituency list ballot, with 18% backing it for the regional list section. Such a result would see 19 Scottish MSPs in the new Parliament, five fewer than they won in 2016.

The Scotsman goes on to note: “Another strong performance for the Greens on 10 per cent for the list would see them return a record high 11 MSPs, up five from 2016. The Liberal Democrats are hovering around 6 per cent of the vote on both lists, which would see them return four MSPs, down one on 2016.”

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Buyers Regret Over Brexit?

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...
Read more

Can Labour Look Forward to a Decade in Power?

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power. Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin. According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data , that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of ...
Read more

Rishi’s Ratings Sink

Rishi Sunak has registered his weakest favourability ratings since becoming Prime Minister according to new polling by Ipsos Mori. It reports that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net favourability score of -7, Rishi Sunak’s has sunk to -19. With Boris Johnson continuing to breathe down Rishi Sunak’s neck, Ipsos goes on to note: “More than half of 2019 Conservative voters are favourable to Johnson (55%) while 49% say the same for Sunak. Overall, among 2019 Conservative voters, Johnson scores +29 while Sunak scores +23.   However, Johnson’s lead owes more to falling ratings for Mr Sunak rather than improving ratings for the former PM.” Looking at the parties as a whole, Labour has a net favourability rating of +2 with the Conservatives on -29. When it coms to Brexit, 55% of respondents told Ipsos that leaving the EU had had a negative impact on the country, with just 21% saying it had been positive. It continues: “If we subtract the proportion saying Brexit has...
Read more