Why is Labour Jittery?

In last week’s New Statesman Stephen Bush wrote eloquently of the challenges that Sir Keir Starmer, Leader of the Labour Party, now faces. 

Under the headline, “A consensus is forming among the commentariat that Keir Starmer is not up to the job. Does it matter?” he outlines the jitters that some in the Labour Party now feel.

Having seen the party and Kier Starmer personally at some points over the past few months over -take the Conservatives and Boris Johnson in the polls, what has become clear is that the polls now, by and large, point towards a swing back to the Conservatives as they enjoy a bounce from the successful vaccine roll out.

Data published by Savanta Comres from a poll carried out between the 5th and 7th February puts the Conservatives on 41% (unchanged since the end of January) and Labour on 37% (down 1 percentage point).

Polling by YouGov out today similarly puts the Conservatives on 41%, unchanged from the start of the month, with Labour down 1 point to 36%. However, given Labour’s efforts to paint Keir Starmer as a more responsible leader than Boris Johnson, the polling from YouGov on leadership will be particularly troubling for the Labour Party. As the poll notes: “Boris Johnson has now gained a small lead on our 'best Prime Minister' question. A third of Britons (33%) say he would make the better head of government, while three in ten people (31%) favour Keir Starmer. A third of voters (34%) are undecided.” 

Ipsos Mori’s Political Monitor is equally tricky for Labour, showing that  the Conservatives are now on 42% (up one point from December) whilst Labour is on 38%, down 3 points.

Whilst Keir Starmer enjoys a better net satisfaction score (+5%) than Boris Johnson (-9%), Ipsos Mori notes that: “86% think the Government is doing well at obtaining vaccines for Britain, including 84% of Labour voters.” It continues: “Some 78% approve of the pace of rollout – saying the government is doing a good job at ‘ensuring the public is vaccinated as soon as possible’. Three-quarters (75%) think the Government is doing a good job at making sure different groups of the population are vaccinated in the right order." 

Looking at who the public feels is best to lead the country through the pandemic and beyond, Ipsos Mori report: “Some 44% of the public think Boris Johnson would respond better to the pandemic from now until the end of the crisis, compared with 27% who think Keir Starmer would do better. Asked who would be better at managing Britain’s recovery after the pandemic, 29% picked Keir Starmer, 44% Boris Johnson.”

Interestingly also, whilst 35% think Keir Starmer has done a good job at giving them a reason to vote Labour, more, 37%, say he has done a bad job in this regard. Ipsos Mori go on to say: “Labour is behind the Conservatives for having the “best team of leaders to deal with the country’s problems” by 41% to 21%. Only 16% think they are the most “clear and united” party, compared with 32% for the Conservatives. A third (32%) believe Labour is ready to form the next government, which is up from 29% in August. 43% do not believe Labour is ready, though this is less than the 59% who disagreed in November 2019 – before the last General Election.”

Summarising the poll, Gideon Skinner, Head of Political Research at Ipsos MORI, said: “The British are among the most likely in the world to say they would get a vaccine, and our poll shows that is backed up by strong public approval for the government’s vaccine programme (and which also seems to be boosting Matt Hancock’s ratings too). This is adding to Keir Starmer’s challenges, who is yet to convince voters of his vision for the country post-pandemic. The public are still to make up their mind about him (he is even now less well-known than Jeremy Corbyn), although he is broadly seen as changing Labour for the better, and he’s not attracting the negativity of his predecessors (his personal ratings remain net positive). But it’s not just about the leader – the public still have questions about the party itself and whether it is ready for government. Although these are showing signs of slow improvement, there is still a long way to go before they match election-winning Oppositions.”

Jitters within the Labour Party are unlikely to be calmed. Little wonder therefore that in the article mentioned at the start of this piece, Stephen Bush concludes: “Labour seldom gets rid of its leaders, but it does have a tendency to hobble them. If Starmer can’t keep the occupants of Britain’s two political realms onside, he may find that his success in the second world – where elections are won – comes to an abrupt end.”

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