All Change in Scotland and for Rishi?

New polling out today suggests that the rift between Scottish First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon, and her predecessor, Alex Salmond, could now be cutting through to the public. It follows a week in which Ms Sturgeon was questioned by MSPs looking into the botched handling by the Scottish Government of allegations against Mr Salmond of sexual harassment.

According to the poll of Scots by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman and conducted between the 4th and 5th March, it finds that, bucking recent trends, 46% of respondents said they would vote against Scotland leaving the UK in any second referendum, compared to 43% who said they would support such a move. 10% said they did not know how they would vote.

With those who did not know how they would vote taken out of the equation, the results put those against independence on 52% and those in favour of it on 48%.

The Scotsman goes on to note that 35% of votes said that the ongoing Salmond inquiry was the main reason driving them away from supporting Scottish independence. 16% said it was making them more likely to support independence with 41% saying it had made no difference to how they would vote in a second referendum. 8% said they did not know how the inquiry would impact their vote.  

The Scotsman went on to note that: “The next issue most likely to drive voters to support the union was Brexit, with 26 per cent saying that made it less likely to support Scottish independence.”

It goes on to observe: “The Scottish Government’s handling of Covid-19 and the ongoing vaccine rollout are the two issues most likely to see Scots move to Yes, with 42 per cent of voters saying they made it more likely for them to vote for Scottish independence.”

The inquiry has also seen trust in the current First Minister drop, with 43% of respondents saying that they now trust Ms Sturgeon less as a result of it, up 7 points since December. 26% said they trusted her more, also up 7 points, with those saying they trust her the same at 25%, down 12 points.

The Scotsman continues: “Trust in the SNP is also dropping, with 45 per cent stating they trust the party less than before the Salmond inquiry, up 8 per cent from the last time this question was asked.

“Almost half of Scots (46 per cent, up 5 per cent), say they trust the Scottish Government less due to the scandal.

“However, the former first minister fares the worst in terms of lost trust, with almost two thirds (57 per cent, up 3 per cent from December) stating they trust Mr Salmond less than before the inquiry began.”

Headaches in the SNP will be growing still further has a Panelbase survey for The Sunday Times has reported that around a third of voters want the First Minister to resign now. It goes on to note that if she is found guilty of having broken the ministerial code, 61% of those questioned said that she should resign. It observes also that: “Even among SNP voters, almost as many think she should quit in those circumstances (38 per cent) rather than fight on (45 per cent).”

The poll finds that 47% would vote against Scotland becoming an independent country, up 3 points from January. 46% said they would vote in favour of independence, down 3 points.

Looking ahead to the Scottish Parliamentary elections in May, 29% of voters said the scandal made it less likely that they would vote SNP.

The Sunday Times goes on to note: “Meanwhile, support for the SNP has tumbled — standing at 47 per cent in the constituency vote, which is down five points from January and eight since last July. In the regional vote it is down four since January to 42 per cent, again an eight point drop since last summer. The Conservatives are poised to remain the official opposition in second place, with 23 per cent (+3) in the constituency vote and 22 per cent (+2) in the regional.

“In the constituency vote Scottish Labour, under its new leader Anas Sarwar, is at 20 per cent (+3), with the Lib Dems on 7 per cent (+1) and Greens 2 per cent (-1). In the regional vote, Labour is on 19 per cent (+3), the Lib Dems 7 per cent (+1), and the Greens 6 per cent (-2).

“John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, said this would give the SNP 65 of Holyrood’s 129 seats (+2 since 2016), the Tories 29 (-2), Labour 25 (+1), the Lib Dems 7 (+2) and the Greens 3 (-3).”

Summing the situation up, Jason Allardyce, Scottish Editor of The Sunday Times has tweeted: “Three polls in a row indicate that on independence Yes is now narrowly behind No. Some of the softer support for the SNP + independence appears to have melted away and at this rate a parliamentary majority is in real doubt.”

Meanwhile, following fairly positive snap polling in the wake of the Budget this week, could all that good will for the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, be about to crumble?  

As the row over the Government’s recommendation that NHS staff should be given just a 1% pay increase continues, The Observer today reports on polling it commissioned Opinium to undertake which has found that 72% of the public believe the pay deal should be more generous. It finds also that 58% of Conservative voters felt such an increase was too low. 35% of the public as a whole said they were angry about the offer being made by the Government.

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