Labour Takes Commanding Lead Ahead of Welsh Elections

 To coincide with St. David’s Day yesterday, the BBC published its annual poll of adults in Wales conducted by ICM Unlimited.

With the survey undertaken between 28th January and 21st February, the findings provide clear pointers towards how things might shape up in the elections to the Welsh Parliament in May, feelings about the Parliament itself and what Wales thinks about independence.

When it comes to voting intentions for the Welsh parliamentary election, for the constituency ballot, 39% of those surveyed said they would vote Labour, up 8 percentage points since last year. The Conservatives have fallen by 7 points to 24%, the same level of support as Plaid Cymru. The Liberal Democrats meanwhile are on 4% with the Green Party on 1%, UKIP on 2%, the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party on 1% and 4% saying they would vote for another party.

For the regional ballot, Labour is on 37%, an increase of 6 points compared to last year. The Conservatives and Plaid Cymru are on 22% with the Liberal Democrats on 3%, the Green Party on 3%, UKIP on 4%, the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party and 6% opted for another party.

The poll finds that support for Wales becoming independent is at its highest level in a decade, with 14% supporting this, three percentage points higher than in 2020 and seven points higher than two years ago.

ICM go on to note however: “there has been an 8-point decline in the proportion of those who think the “Welsh Parliament should have more powers than it currently has” (35%), the lowest score since 2011. Conversely, there has been a consolidation in support for those who want the powers to remain unchanged or to be weaker, and who favour its abolition or do not know.”

Meanwhile, ahead of the Budget tomorrow, Deltapoll has published new data for the Mail onf Sunday.

It finds that by a margin of 48% to 34% those questioned said that a Conservative government led by Boris Johnson with Rishi Sunak as Chancellor of the Exchequer was better for the economy than a Labour team led by Keir Starmer and Shadow Chancellor Anneliese Dodds.

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 43% of those questioned felt that the general economic situation would get better, with 34% saying it would get worse. Looking at their own household finances, 29% said they would get better over the next year, with 18% saying they would get worse.

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