Scottish Polls Are On a Knife Edge

 I should start by adding a health warning to this post. It is written as news is breaking that Scottish First Minister and the leader of the SNP, Nicola Sturgeon, is reported, in the words of The Herald, to have “misled parliament over the Alex Salmond affair”.  It goes on to note:

“Sky News said the Holyrood inquiry into the affair found the First Minister gave "an inaccurate account" of her actions and so misled the cross-party investigation.

“However it stopped short of saying she did so "knowingly", the threshold for resignation under the Scottish Ministerial Code.”

The paper’s Scottish Political Editor, Tom Gordon, goes on to note:

“The decision is likely to increase pressure on Ms Sturgeon to stand down before May's election.”

That said, Opinium has published polling commissioned by Sky News on the political landscape in Scotland.

Ahead of May’s elections to the Scottish Parliament, the poll gives the SNP a commanding lead. On the constituency vote the SNP are on 46%, followed by the Conservatives on 24%, Labour on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 6%, and the Green on 4%.

On the regional vote the SNP are on 42%, with the Conservatives on 22%, Labour on 19%, the Liberal Democrats on 5%, and the Greens on 7%.

According to Sky News, replicated uniformly across Scotland, such results would leave the SNP short, by the finest of margins, of an overall majority. Sam Coates, Sky’s Deputy Political Editor notes that:

“The poll results would mean the SNP gain one seat to 64 seats but still be one short of a majority. The Tories would be down two to 29 seats, Labour unchanged on 24 seats and the Greens up one seat to seven.”

When it comes to views on independence, the margins are just as tight. With those who did not know how they would vote excluded, it finds that 51% would back independence, with 49% opposing it.

As to whether there should be a second referendum in the first place, 46% said there should be one within five years, with 48% saying there should not be.

In the popularity stakes, Nicola Sturgeon remains head and shoulders above the rest, with a net score of +27 compared to -35 for Boris Johnson and -11 for Keir Starmer. Sturgeon’s immediate opponents, the still new Scottish Labour leader, Anas Sarwar and the Scottish Conservative leader, Douglas Ross, have net approval scores of 0 and -15 respectively.

Explaining the reasons for Sturgeon’s popularity, Opinium notes:

“Part of the reason for her high popularity is because of her government’s response to the pandemic. A comfortable majority (57%) approve of the way the Scottish has responded to the pandemic, compared to just 26% who disapprove.

“The numbers are reversed when it comes to the UK government, with just 29% approving of their response and 54% disapproving.”

More crucially given the new now breaking, Opinium goes on to note:

“Despite Sturgeon’s high popularity overall, there is scepticism among the population about whether she is telling the truth about the Salmond affair. Four In ten (40%) think she is telling the truth, compared to 44% who think she isn’t.

“However, this is higher than when we asked about Alex Salmond, with just 15% thinking he is telling the truth and 68% thinking he isn’t.

“If Sturgeon is found to have broken the ministerial code a majority of Scots (51%) think she should resign, with just 35% thinking she should keep her job. There is a big political divide on this question though, with a large majority of SNP voters (62%) thinking she should still remain in her role.”

Based on the above, there is no denying that Nicola Sturgeon’s position now hangs by a thread.

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