Starmer’s First Elections – Lessons from History

Following the postponement, due to the pandemic, of various elections that had been due to take place last May, for political geeks, the 6^th May 2021 will provide a wealth of data in what will the biggest electoral test for all the political parties this side of the next General Election. ‘Super Thursday’ as it will inevitably be seen, will involve elections for:

21 county councils.

124 unitary, district and borough councils.

13 directly elected mayors.

39 police and crime commissioners.

The Scottish Parliament.

The Welsh Parliament.

The London Assembly.

With the Conservatives having been in power now for 11 years, these elections should, in theory, provide rich pickings for the Labour Party under Keir Starmer.

And yet, with the COVID-19 vaccine roll out going so well and the Conservatives once again pulling ahead of Labour in the polls, it is Keir Starmer who is facing a trickier time going into these elections than Boris Johnson.

As the first electoral test for the new Labour leader, what does history tell us about how those leaders who have made the jump from Opposition to Government performed in their first electoral tests?

Just by way of background, many of the statistics I quote come from the House of Commons Library’s helpful note on election statistics.

We begin with Margaret Thatcher, who became Leader of the Conservative Party in February 1975, replacing Ted Heath.

Thatcher’s elevation to leader came after the two general elections of 1974. In February of that year Labour, only just, secured more seats than the Conservatives in a hung Parliament, despite Labour having a lower share of the vote (37.2%) than the Conservatives (37.9%). By the October 1974 election however, Labour managed to draw ahead, gaining 39.3% of the votes cast, compared to the Conservatives who fell to 35.8% of the vote. It gave Harold Wilson a majority of just 3 seats.

Having become leader in February 1975, Thatcher faced local elections in May of that year. In the event, the Conservatives were judged to have performed well, making a net gain of 199 council seats, compared to Labour’s loss of 206.

The 1979 General Election went on to see the Conservatives defeat the Labour Government of James Callaghan, with a majority of 43 seats. The Conservatives did so, having secured 43.9% of the vote, compared to Labour on 36.9%.

The next leader to lead their party from Opposition to Government was Tony Blair. Given that he was elected midway through the 1992 Parliament, following the death of John Smith, two figures are relevant for this analysis.

Firstly, following Labour’s surprise defeat in the 1992 General Election, John Smith won the leadership of the party, replacing Neil Kinnock.

Smith’s first test came with the local elections in 1993. In terms of seats, Labour picked up an additional 111, with the Conservatives loosing 486 and the Liberal Democrats gaining 395. In respect of the estimated share of the vote, Labour was on 39%, up from the 34.4% it secured at the previous General Election. In contrast, the local election saw the Conservative’s share of the vote slump to 31%, down from the 41.9% it won at the General Election.

For Tony Blair, having won the Labour leadership in July 1994, his first major electoral test came at the time of the May 1995 local elections. It saw the Conservative Party lose over 2,000 councillors, with Labour picking up over 1,800 new council seats. In respect of the share of the vote, Labour secured 47%, with the Conservatives slumping to 25%. By the time of its landslide General Election victory just two years later Labour secured 43.2% of the votes cast, compared to the Conservatives on 30.7%.

Fast forward to December 2005 and David Cameron becomes Leader of the Conservative Party, replacing Michael Howard. He did so following the party’s third General Election defeat, although in 2005, it managed to pick up an additional 33 seats. Whilst its share of the vote at the time, 32.4%, was a less than 1 percentage point increase on its performance in 2001, Labour’s share of the vote fell to 35.2%, having been 40.7% in 2001.

Against this backdrop, Cameron’s first test came in May 2006 which proved to be a good night for the Conservatives. As the BBC reported at the time: “Tony Blair has suffered a bad night in England's local elections with Labour losing more than 300 councillors. The main winners were the Tories, who had their best results since 1992. The Lib Dems failed to make much headway.” It saw the Conservatives secure 39% of the votes cast, compared to 26% for Labour.

By the time of the 2010 General Election, with Labour having won just 29% of the vote share, the Conservatives managed 36.1%, enabling it to lead a coalition government with the Liberal Democrats.

For Keir Starmer, as he looks ahead to the elections this May, it will be crucial that he is able to point at the very least to a notable improvement in the total share of the vote that Labour wins across the country compared to its performance in the 2019 General Election of 32.1%. Without this, the mutterings about his leadership will only grow louder.