Is an Independence Supermajority On the Cards Now?

Just a matter of days ago this blog reported on polling which questioned if Alex Salmond’s new Alba Party in Scotland was dead on arrival, together with his ambitions for a so called ‘supermajority’ in favour of independence following May’s elections to Holyrood.

New data suggests that the Salmond dream might now be looking more likely.

The poll, conducted by Panelbase for The Sunday Times, puts the party standings in the constituency vote section as follows: SNP is on 49% (+2 since last month), Conservatives on 22% (-1), Labour 20% (unchanged), the Liberal Democrats on 6% (-1) and Greens unchanged on 2%.

In the regional list vote, the SNP is on 39% (-3), the Conservatives on 21% (-1), Labour on 17 % (-2), Liberal Democrats on 5% (-2) and Greens 8% (+2), with Alba on 6% and the pro-Union All For Unity founded by the former leader of Respect, George Galloway, on 4%.

Writing for the Sunday Times, Professor Sir John Curtice from Strathclyde University suggests that such a result, if replicated in May, could give the Alba Party six seats in the Scottish Parliament. He warns however that: “if its vote were to prove to be just one point below Panelbase’s estimate, the party’s likely tally would be halved to three seats, while at two points lower it could fall to just one.”

Professor Curtice forecasts that such polling, if replicated universally across Scotland, would give the SNP 65 seats (+2 since 2016), the Conservatives 24 (-7), Labour 20 (-4). Liberal Democrats 5 (unchanged), Greens 8 (+2), Alba 6 and All for Unity one, with George Galloway expected to win in South Scotland. Combined this would give the pro-independence parties of the SNP, the Greens and Alba 79 seats at Holyrood, compared to 50 for those wanting to keep Scotland in the UK.

The Panelbase data finds also that with undecideds excluded, 51% of those questioned supported independence, with 49% opposing it. 54% said they wanted another referendum within the next five years.

Of Alex Salmond’s personal appeal, the Sunday Times notes: “Only 20 per cent consider him “a fit person to stand for election”, while two-thirds (67 per cent) disagree and 13 per cent don’t know. He is considered far less trustworthy than Sturgeon and less trusted than Johnson. He has a dismal approval rating of minus 49.”

The paper goes on to note of the other political leaders in Scotland: “Although Labour has lost support in Scotland, there is some comfort for new leader Anas Sarwar, whose approval rating his leapt from +3 to +12 since last month, after a strong performance in the first televised leaders’ debate last week.

“Sturgeon retains a positive rating of (+21, down from +23), while the rating for Tory leader Douglas Ross has fallen from -16 to -23. Scottish Greens leader Patrick Harvie’s rating has improved marginally from -1 to become neutral while the Lib Dem leader Willie Rennie’s rating has slipped from -6 to -8.”

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