SNP On Course For Outright Victory According to Ipsos MORI

Ahead of next months’ elections to Holyrood, Ipsos MORI has published its latest Scottish Political Monitor.

The polling company interviewed a representative sample of 1,038 adults aged 16+ across Scotland.  Interviews were conducted by telephone between 29th March and 4th April 2021.

The headline voting intentions for the Scottish Parliament were as follows:

For the constituency vote – SNP 53%, Conservatives 20%, Labour 18%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Green Party 2% and other parties on 1%.

For the regional list vote – SNP 38%, Conservatives 21%, Labour 18%, Green Party 12%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Alba Party 3% and other parties on 2%.

The Scotsman has noted that if such results were replicated universally across Scotland next month the SNP would return 70 of the 129 MSPs at Holyrood, giving them a majority of 11.

The Conservatives would take 25 seats, down from 31 in 2016, with Labour taking 19 – down 5. The Scottish Greens would take 11 seats and the Liberal Democrats would return 4 MSPs.

Asked which issues would help decide which party those polled would vote for 49% said independence/devolution followed by 28% saying education, 27% saying the NHS/healthcare, 16% saying managing the economy and 15% saying coronavirus.

Interestingly whilst Nicola Sturgeon remains the most popular leader in Scotland with a net approval rating of +29, Scottish Labour’s still new leader, Anas Sarwar, is running her close on +26. The Scottish Greens leader, Patrick Harvie is on +14 with Willie Rennie for the Liberal Democrats on +7. In contrast, the Scottish Conservative Leader, Douglas Ross has a net approval rating of -23 with Alex Salmond, leader of the new Alba Party languishing on -55.

When it comes to the big question of independence, among those likely to vote in a second referendum who expressed a voting intention, 52% said they would support independence with 48% opposing it.  

Meanwhile, new polling for the Western Mail in Wales carried out by Beaufort Research has found that dispute signs of support for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party, 61% of those questioned believed the Welsh Parliament should stay in existence while 20% said it should be scrapped. 19% said they didn’t know.

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