Starmer’s Labour Pains Get Worse

That the Conservative Government, headed by Boris Johnson, has enjoyed a bounce in the polls on the back of the successful role out of the COVID-19 vaccination programme is beyond doubt.

What will be worrying Labour head office though is just how bad things have now become according to the latest poll.

YouGov questioned 1,689 adults across Great Britain between the 13th and 14th April for The Times. The results show that in respect of headline voting intentions,  excluding those who did know how they would vote, those who refused to say and those who said they would not vote, the Conservatives were on 43% (up 2 percentage points since earlier this month). Labour meanwhile were on 29% (down 5 points).

Just to put that into context at the 2019 General Election which Labour so catastrophically lost, the party secured just over 32% of the votes cast.

Asked who they felt that best Prime Minister would be, 34% said Boris Johnson (down 1 point) with 26% saying Keir Starmer (down 3 points).

In his assessment of the results and what Keir Starmer might make of them, Patrick Maguire, Red Box Editor for The Times has observed: “It is so far only one poll, not to mention one whose fieldwork was mostly taken before lobbying hit the headlines (not that most normal voters have noticed). Nonetheless the trend is as clear as it is unflattering to Labour, and it is neither where he hoped nor expected to be with less than a month until the local elections.

“Particularly worrying, too, is the fact that the slippage in support is not confined to its right flank, and both the Greens and Liberal Democrats are making ground at Labour’s expense. If borne out over the weeks until polling day, Labour MPs might start conducting their conversations about Starmer’s leadership at a higher volume.”

The figures are unlikely to do much to allay concerns within the party membership more widely which was already in a pessimistic mood. According to further polling published by YouGov this week of Labour Party members  the grassroots are evenly split about the prospects of Starmer becoming Prime Minister, with 46% saying it is likely to happen compared to 45% saying it is unlikely.

If a general election were held in the immediate future, 84% of Labour members said they thought the Conservatives would win the most seats in Parliament. That is made up of 29% who said the Conservatives would win a “large majority”, 40% saying they would win a “small” majority and 15% who said it would be a “hung parliament, with the Conservatives ending up forming a government.

If the next general election were held in May 2024, just 24% of Labour members felt the party would be able to win it with any size of outright majority.  

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