A Blizzard of Polling

With days to go until voters head to the polls for elections right across the UK, predictably we have today a blizzard of polling to go through.

Firstly, in Scotland, the Daily Record reports on two polls for the elections to Holyrood.

The first, carried out by BMG Research for The Herald newspaper puts the parties, in the constituency vote section of the ballot on SNP 49%, Labour 21%, Conservatives 19% and the Liberal Democrats 9%. On the regional list vote, the results were SNP 37%, Conservatives 22%, Labour 17%, the Greens 9%, the Liberal Democrats 8% and Alba Party 4%. According to the Daily Record, if replicated across Scotland such results would give the SNP an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament with the SNP winning 68 seats, the Conservatives 25, Labour 18, Greens 9, the Liberal Democrats 7 and 2 seats for Alex Salmond’s Alba Party.

The Daily Record goes on to say: “The second poll, carried out for the Sunday Times by Panelbase, gave the SNP the most slender majority possible. In the constituencies, excluding undecideds, the SNP were on 48%, the Tories 21%, Labour 20%, the Lib Dems 7% and Greens 3%. On the regional Lists, the SNP polled 39%, the Tories 22%, Labour 16%, Lib Dems 7%, Greens 8% and Alba 4%.” It quotes Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University as suggesting that such a result would see the SNP win 65 seats, the Conservatives 28, Labour 18, the Liberal Democrats 6, the Greens 9 and the Alba Party 3.

In Wales, the Western Mail has reported on polling by Savanta ComRes conducted between the 23rd and 28th April.

For the constituency vote section of the ballot, the parties are on the following: Labour 36%, Conservatives 27%, Plaid Cymru 19%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Abolish the Assembly 4%, Reform UK 4% and other parties on 5%.

For the regional list section of the ballot, the parties are on the following: Labour 31%, Conservatives 24%, Plaid Cymru 21%, Abolish the Assembly 8%, Liberal Democrats 5%, Green Party 3%, Reform UK 3%, UKIP 2% and other parties on 3%.

The Western Mail notes that such results would leave Labour as the dominant party in the Welsh Parliament, but without an overall majority.

Looking to the local elections in England meanwhile, The Sunday Telegraph today reports   on a poll of 11,506 voters in 123 English district councils undertaken for it by Electoral Calculus and the polling company, Find Out Now.

The headline suggests that the Conservatives are set to take control of 13 more councils including two from Labour, with Labour set to gain six.  

The paper goes on to say: “The Conservatives are set to seize Amber Valley and Harlow from Labour and strengthen their hand in the Midlands with a clutch of councils, but will not make any more inroads into the "Red Wall" of Northern England, the survey reveals.

“Labour are forecast to take six councils from no overall control - Adur, Bristol, Burnley, Kirklees, Wirral and Worcester - but none directly from the Tories in any of the head-to-head battles between the two parties.”

The Conservatives, according to the data, are set to gain 311 council seats, compared to 331 for Labour. The paper goes on to note however that the Conservatives proportionate increase “is much greater, with a forecast of a net 2,155 wards to Labour’s 3,080. It means the Tories would end the night controlling 40 councils, a gain of 13, and Labour would hold 58, up from 52.”

It continues: “It is likely to be a bad night for Ed Davey’s Liberal Democrats as they are set to lose 124 wards, down to a net 727, although the party will gain one council - St Albans, also a parliamentary seat it seized from the Tories in the 2019 election. Mr Davey is predicted to end the night with seven councils.”

According to the poll the Conservatives are on course to win eight councils from no overall control - Basildon, Cannock Chase, Colchester, Crawley, Dudley, Gloucester, North Hertfordshire, Nuneaton and Bedworth along with four new councils - Buckinghamshire, Cornwall, North Northamptonshire and West Northamptonshire. The Sunday Telegraph continues: “The Conservatives are predicted to lose one council - Cherwell - to no overall control, while Labour are forecast to lose two - Ipswich and Plymouth.”

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