Labour Are In a Bad Place if Polls Are to Be Believed

With polling day for elections across the country now just days away, it is the Labour Party which has the most to fear.

Aside from the elections to the Scottish and Welsh Parliaments, the contest which will tell us most about the state of British politics will be the parliamentary by-election in Hartlepool. It will especially tell us whether Boris Johnson’s appeal in the so called ‘Red Wall’ seats endures, or whether Labour is able to stop the rot that set it at the 2019 General Election.

According to a poll published today by Survation for Good Morning Britain of voters in the constituency,  the Conservatives could be on course to win handsomely. 50% said they would vote for the Conservative candidate, Jill Mortimer with 33% going for Labour’s Paul Williams.

What is more, the poll further demonstrates the appeal that Boris Johnson has in the seat with a net favourability rating of +23% compared to Keir Starmer on -18%.

But this represents just the tip of a large iceberg for Labour.

According to polling by Opinium and reported in today’s Times Red Box, Labour is on course for a heavy defeat in the West Midlands Mayoral election. It suggests that the current Conservative incumbent, Andy Street could win on the first round of voting, with 54% of the vote, compared to Labour’s Liam Byrne on 37%.

In the Tees Valley, data again compiled by Opinium suggests that incumbent Conservative Mayor, Ben Houchen,  is also set to win comfortably on the first round of voting. The poll puts him on 63% compared to Labour’s Jesse-Joe Jacobs on 37%.

Summing things up, Sebastian Payne, Whitehall Editor at The Financial Times has noted: “The Hartlepool 17 point poll is jaw dropping, but the West Midlands polling today is the most important. Out of the key races in England on Thursday, this is the one Labour should have in the bag. The fact Street has increased his lead since 2017 shows Labour is in a bad place.”

 

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