Labour Set to Lose Council Seats in Red Wall Areas Suggests YouGov

 As the Labour Party looks forward to what this Thursday’s elections holds for it, it would be forgiven also for looking back wistfully.

Exactly 24 years to the day Tony Blair entered Downing Street for the first time as Prime Minister. He did so on the back of a remarkable set of general election results. On a 10% swing to Labour from the Conservatives, Blair secured a majority in the House of Commons of 179 seats, having won 45% of the votes cast.

Fast forward to today and with the Conservatives having been in government for 11 years, and amidst allegations of sleaze against Boris Johnson new polling by YouGov could not be bleaker for the Labour camp.

YouGov note that between the 16th and 28th April it “surveyed people living up and down the ‘Red Wall’ who are in areas that have local council (district, borough, or unitary authority) elections next week.

Based on the voting intention figures among those who either plan to vote in the local elections, or have already voted by post it estimates that the current voting intention for the elections on 6th May is: Conservatives 37%, Labour 38%, Lib Dems 6%, Greens 9%, Reform UK 3%, and others 6%. It suggests that this would represent a swing from Labour to the Conservatives of around 9 percentage points.

Using its forecasting model, YouGov notes that its central figures estimate suggests that Labour would lose 59 seats in the 20 areas identified by the polling company as Red Wall councils. Overall it says that the “model suggests Labour losses between a low of 35 and a high of 88 seats.”

It continues: “The Conservatives meanwhile could pick up around 90 extra seats, with an overall range of between 69 and 122 gains.

“The Liberal Democrats could lose around a dozen council seats across the Red Wall while the Greens could pick up a couple, but UKIP may well lose all their representatives across the councils. Candidates standing for other parties – including independents – are also projected to be down by around 15.”

YouGov suggests that based on its central estimate, the Conservatives would gain majority control in Dudley, and win just enough seats to take full control of Northumberland and Derby. It would also become the largest party on Bolton council.

For Labour, YouGov suggest that it would lose majority control of Bury, Hyndburn and Lincoln councils, although it notes that these would be “extremely close” results. It goes on to observe however that: “On a brighter note for Labour, they look as if they may pick up a number of seats from independent groups and candidates to maintain majority control in County Durham, and could well secure a majority in Burnley (but again, this is looking extremely tight).” YouGov conclude by suggesting that Labour’s majorities in Sheffield, Warrington and Wolverhampton may all be under threat.

Meanwhile, Opinium's latest poll for The Observer, conducted between the 28th and 30th April has seen the Conservatives national lead over Labour fall to 5 points, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 37%.

It goes on to say: “The two main leaders have also seen their approval ratings go in opposite directions. Boris Johnson is on net -6 (37% approve, 43% disapprove) while Keir Starmer has his most clearly positive rating in weeks at +8 (38% approve, 30% disapprove).

“However, Johnson is still ahead on the best prime minister question (32% vs. 29% for Starmer, 24% for ‘none of these’ and 14% don’t know), but this compares to a 10 point lead last week when it was 35% vs. 25%.”

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