Labour's Woes in Numbers

Labour headquarters would do well to avoid today’s polling by Opinium for The Observer if they want to have a half decent day with the results spelling out clearly the scale of the mountain needs to climb to get back into the game.

The survey, which took place between the 13th and 14th May puts the Conservatives, when it comes to headline voting intentions on 44% compared to Labour on 31%. To put that into context, the 13 point lead for the Conservatives compares to the 5 points that Opinium gave them at the end of April.

If that wasn’t bad enough, whilst 40% of respondents said that Boris Johnson would make the best Prime Minister (up 8 points since two weeks ago), just 23% said they felt the Labour leader, Keir Starmer would, down 6 points since the end of April. That puts him just below the 24% of respondents who said they did not know who would be the best Prime Minister.

Digging deeper, 28% of respondents said they approved of the job that Keir Starmer was doing as Labour leader, with Opinium noting that it is the lowest figure it has recorded for him. 39% disapproved of the job he was doing. The polling company goes on to explain: “In terms of the net approval rating, at -11%, this is only the second time we have seen him in the net negative approval. The other being the same poll in late March, when he was on net approval of -5%.”

Opinium continues: “This drop in rating is mainly because of a collapse in approval amongst 2019 Labour voters. Currently only 44% of 2019 Labour voters approve of his performance as Labour leader, down 15 points from 59% a fortnight ago. Disapproval is up the same amount from 19% to 34%. Hence his net approval rating amongst his own party’s voters has dropped 30 points from +40% to +10%.”

Just 29% of respondents said that Keir Starmer looked like a Prime Minister in waiting, compared to 41% who did not. Two weeks ago, 36% felt he looked ready to be Prime Minister with 32% disagreeing with that statement.

Not surprisingly, 67% of those polled felt that Labour did badly in the local elections at the start of the month, with just 209% saying they did well. Opinium notes that: “This includes almost seven in ten (69%) 2019 Labour voters that think Labour performed badly in the elections. By comparison, 72% think the Conservatives did well, while only 14% think they did badly.”

Opinium goes on to explain: “31% of those who think Labour did badly blame Starmer, while 28% blame others in the Labour Party. However,  2019 Labour voters who think Labour did badly are more  likely than the public as a whole to say nobody is to blame  and the result was always going to be tough (20% vs 17%  respectively).”

Whilst 49% of those who voted Labour in 2019 believe Keir Starmer should remain as leader, 33% back calls for his resignation. Opinium continues: “Those opposed to Starmer have clearly begun to stop voting for Labour, as those who are currently intending to vote Labour want him to stay (57% remain as leader vs 28% resign). A majority of the public (57%) think Starmer has been a better Labour leader than Jeremy Corbyn,  while only 23% think Corbyn was better. 2019 Labour voters are more divided, with only half (50%)  believing Starmer was the better leader while 35% think Corbyn was.”

IPSOS Mori meanwhile has published its latest Political Pulse which gives Keir Starmer a net favourability rating of -22. 21% of those questioned had a favourable view of him, with 43% having an unfavourable opinion. Boris Johnson meanwhile had a net rating of 0, with 40% of those polled saying they had a favourable and unfavourable opinion of him.  

The mountain for Labour will be compounded by the fact that whilst 34% felt the country was going in the wrong direction, 47% said it was going in the right direction.

Over at Savanta ComRes, polling this week provides a bit more detail about people’s views of the Labour Party.  

50% of those questioned said that they Labour Party is not clear about what it stands for, including 33% of those who voted for the party in 2019. In contrast, among the same pool of Labour voters, 43% said the Conservatives where clear about what they stand for. Among those who voted Conservative at the last general election 81% said Labour was not clear about what it stood for.

61% of the UK adults surveyed said Labour had lost its well, including 57% of those who voted Labour in 2019 and 75% of those who voted Conservative. Savanta ComRes go on to note: “UK adults are significantly less likely to view Labour as representing a change for the better (38%), than the Conservatives (49%) and less likely to view Labour as presenting a vision for the future (38% vs 52%).

“Even among 2019 Labour voters, around three quarters believe they represent a change for the better (72%), with just three in five saying that Labour present a vision for the future of the country (62%).”

The poll reports that among those who voted Labour in 2019, 60% said it was the party of aspiration, with 34% saying that the Conservatives were.

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