New Poll Bad News for Unionists in Northern Ireland

To say that unionist politics in Northern Ireland has been going through a turbulent period would be an understatement.

Following the resignation of Arlene Foster as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party, the party’s MPs and MLAs have elected as her replacement Edwin Poots, the current Minister of Agriculture, Environment, and Rural Affairs in the power sharing executive at Stormont.

Outlining the challenge he faces, PoliticsHome has noted that: “Poots fiercely opposes the post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland and has been reluctant to implement the infrastructure required for border checks in his role as agriculture minister.”

It goes on to say that he is now “also tasked with building momentum ahead of next year's assembly elections, with the DUP's support dwindling in recent opinion polls. He is expected to focus on winning back support lost to the hardline Traditional Unionist Voice, but faces losing more moderate voters to centrist party Alliance.”

And in a sign of the potential strains his leadership of the DUP could cause with Sinn Fein within the Northern Ireland executive PoliticsHome observes of Poots: “He appeals to the fundamentalist wing of the party through his fiercely socially-conservative and evangelical views. He has described same-sex marriage as "abominable" and when Foster first became leader said her most "important job" was that of a "wife, mother and daughter".”

Alongside this, the Ulster Unionist Party, once the dominant unionist party in Northern Ireland, has itself recently elected a new leader in the form of Upper Bann MLA Doug Beattie, the only candidate to stand in an election to replace Steve Aiken.

Against the background of such change, it is timely that the Belfast Telegraph has today published details of polling undertaken for it by LucidTalk. The results suggests that with a 9 point lead over the DUP, Sinn Fein could be on course to become the largest single party at next year’s Assembly elections, a result which would be renew pressure on the future of the UK as it is currently consisted.

The poll conducted online of 3,072 people between the 14th and 17th May puts Sinn Fein on 25% of the vote when it comes to first preferences, just up from the nearly 23% of the votes it secured in the 2019 UK General Election.

The DUP meanwhile are on 16%, down from just under the 31% share of the vote it won in 2019, with the Alliance also on 16%, about the same as they polled in 2019. The Ulster Unionist Party is on 14% with the SDLP on 12% and the more hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice on 11%.

The Belfast Telegraph goes on to note:  “The DUP was on an all-time low on 19% in our poll four months ago, but it has now fallen another three points. Some 29% of its voters at the last Assembly election now say they will vote TUV; 10% UUP; and 4% Alliance.”

To make matters worse for the DUP, according to the data  Edwin Poots had the worst personal rating of any politician in Northern Ireland, with 62% branding him either bad or awful.

Opening his analysis of the results for the Belfast Telegraph, Jonathan Tonge, Professor of Politics at the University of Liverpool who specialises in Northern Irish politics writes: “Poor Edwin Poots. The new DUP leader barely had time for a cup of tea and a biscuit in his new job before 62% of voters immediately declared his performance “bad” or “awful”. What did he do wrong? Slurp his cuppa? Dunk his biscuit?

“LucidTalk’s latest poll was conducted immediately after Poots’ DUP victory and just before Doug Beattie’s elevation to UUP leader. Poots’ triumph might be his last great polling day. He wants unionists to get to 45 Assembly seats to defeat the Protocol.

“Based on the evidence from this survey, the DUP will be contributing less than half. And Poots’ biggest political decision will be choosing a Deputy First Minister to serve alongside Sinn Fein First Minister Michelle O’Neill.

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