Burnahm is Public's Favourite to Replace Starmer

Just a day after the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer’s interview for Piers Morgan’s Life Stories show went to air, new polling suggests that the public might be ready for a change in leadership within the Labour Party.

According to the data gathered by  Redfield & Wilton Strategies 37% of the public believe Labour should change its leader now, with 28% saying it should not. This includes 43% of 2019 Conservative voters, and 40% of Labour voters who believe Keir Starmer should be replaced now.

37% of those polled said they would support a change of Labour leader before the 2024 General Election with 38% saying they would neither support nor oppose such a leadership change. Redfield & Wilton go on to note: “At 49%, almost half of 2019 Labour voters would support replacing Keir Starmer ahead of the next General Election, possibly indicating that they see Starmer as an electoral liability. Only 15% of respondents would oppose Keir Starmer being replaced as Leader ahead of the next General Election, including just 16% of 2019 Labour voters.”

It continues: “Potentially explaining this support for replacing Keir Starmer as Leader, our research finds that 57% of respondents do not think that the Labour Party under Keir Starmer is capable of winning the next General Election in 2024. While it is perhaps unsurprising that 77% of 2019 Conservative voters adopt this view, it is noteworthy that 36% of 2019 Labour voters find the Labour Party under Starmer not capable of winning the next General Election. Conversely, a somewhat higher proportion (42%) of 2019 Labour voters do think the Labour Party under Keir Starmer is capable of winning the next General Election, pointing towards internal divisions on Keir Starmer’s leadership within the Labour Party’s voter base.”

Whilst 47% of those questioned said they are unsure who they would prefer to replace Keir Starmer, 22% of those who did have a preference were most likely to prefer the current Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham as the next Labour leader, including 25% of both 2019 Labour and 2019 Conservative voters. Among the other candidates suggested in the poll, no other Labour politician scored above 5%.

Redfield & Wilton go on to observe: “At a more general level, the question of leadership is a crucial one to address for any party—in a recent poll, we found that two-thirds (68%) of the public say that when voting in a General Election, what they think of the national leaders of the various parties running in their constituency is most important to them, compared to 32% who care more about their opinion of the local candidate running in their constituency. These results thus support the assumption that public perceptions of a party’s leader are key in determining that party’s electoral fate.”

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