Did 2001 Mark The Start of Labour’s Decline?

Twenty years ago today New Labour achieved what was Tony Blair’s priority during his first term in office – a clear second consecutive term for a Labour government.

As outlined in a briefing from the House of Commons Library, securing a majority of 166, and making a net loss of just 6 seats was an undoubted triumph. And yet, as we consider the state of the Labour Party today, despite having secured such a large majority, did 2001 mark the start of Labour’s long journey of decline to the point that we now see?

Take the turnout which demonstrated a distinct lack of enthusiasm on the part of voters. At 59.4%, not only was it down 12 percentage points compared to the 1997 election, it was also the lowest turnout of any election since 1918. It meant that more people did not bother to vote than voted for Labour to be returned to government.

In contrast, in 1983, Margaret Thatcher’s second victory saw the Conservative Party’s majority increase from 44 to 144, on a turnout of 72.7%.  

Moreover, 2001 marked the steady decline in Labour’s share of the vote, with the party having secured 40.7%, just under 3 percentage point below the share it won in 2001. By 2005 it would drop to 35.2%.

Whether all this adds up to 2001 being the start of the party’s decline is debateable, and those close to the New Labour project, such as Lord Mandelson would not doubt object to the argument. And yet, as Nick Sparrow, then then managing director of ICM argued at the time in the Guardian: “Politicians will have to look a lot closer to home to work out why so many could not be bothered to vote. The apathy of focus group respondents suggests that low turnout in the 2001 election was a consequence of unfulfilled promises from Labour on the big issues they promised to tackle, coupled with a feeling that there was no alternative.”

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