Support for Scottish Independence Cooling Off Suggests New Poll

Support for Scotland becoming an independent country has fallen according to a new Panelbase poll for The Sunday Times.  

The findings, based on a survey of 1,287 adults aged 16 and over in Scotland, found that with those who did not know excluded, 48% would support independence, down four points since Panelbase’s poll in April. 52% supported Scotland staying in the UK, up four points.  

The poll also finds that:

19% felt an independence referendum should be held within the next year, with 35% supporting a vote in the next two to five years.

46% felt that there should not be another referendum in the next few years.

22% said that they thought independence will happen within five years, down 8% since April. That said, 24% believe it will happen between five and ten years, up 4%.

The Sunday Times quotes Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University as saying that the poll indicates “a cooling of the independence ardour” since the elections to the Scottish Parliament held last month.

Meanwhile, Opinium has also published its latest polling for The Observer. Having questioned respondents before Matt Hancock’s resignation as Health Secretary, I’ll stay clear of the headline voting intentions this time.

That said, it does include some interesting results as the Chancellor considers how to pay for everything he has spent in response to the COVID pandemic.

According to Opinium, 37% would like to see taxes increased to spend more on public services, with 15% believing that tax and spending should be cut. 37% however believe the current balance between tax and spending is about right, with 12% saying that they do not know.

It goes on to say: “People are most likely to say that the top rate of income tax (45%), the higher rate of income tax (39%), and corporation tax (35%) are currently too low.” Opinium continues: “Meanwhile they are most likely to think that council tax (50%), fuel duty (39%), and VAT (38%) are  currently too high.”

Asked where they felt any extra tax revenue should be directed, 64% said the NHS, 28% said social care, 23% said schools and 21% said the police.

Five years on from the Brexit referendum meanwhile, Opinium notes that: “Overall, 33% approve (-3) of the way the government has been handling Brexit, compared to 43% who disapprove (+4). Around half (51%) of Leave voters approve of the job they are doing compared to just 18% of those who voted Remain in the referendum. However, approval among Leave voters has dropped since January where 63% approved compared to 51% now.

“Similarly, more people think the Brexit process has gone badly (52%) than well (38%). Despite this, there is more optimism about the future, with 42% thinking the problems caused so far will be solved with time (-1) compared to 35% (+1) who think they will not be. Meanwhile 8% think that Brexit hasn’t caused any problems, and 16% say they don’t know.”

It concludes: “When presented with four options just 27% now say they want to remain in the EU, with an additional 22% thinking we should negotiate a closer relationship. This compares to 20% who think the current relationship is about right, and 22% who think we should have a more distant relationship.”

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Buyers Regret Over Brexit?

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...
Read more

Can Labour Look Forward to a Decade in Power?

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power. Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin. According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data , that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of ...
Read more

Rishi’s Ratings Sink

Rishi Sunak has registered his weakest favourability ratings since becoming Prime Minister according to new polling by Ipsos Mori. It reports that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net favourability score of -7, Rishi Sunak’s has sunk to -19. With Boris Johnson continuing to breathe down Rishi Sunak’s neck, Ipsos goes on to note: “More than half of 2019 Conservative voters are favourable to Johnson (55%) while 49% say the same for Sunak. Overall, among 2019 Conservative voters, Johnson scores +29 while Sunak scores +23.   However, Johnson’s lead owes more to falling ratings for Mr Sunak rather than improving ratings for the former PM.” Looking at the parties as a whole, Labour has a net favourability rating of +2 with the Conservatives on -29. When it coms to Brexit, 55% of respondents told Ipsos that leaving the EU had had a negative impact on the country, with just 21% saying it had been positive. It continues: “If we subtract the proportion saying Brexit has...
Read more