What Happened in Chesham and Amersham?

That the Liberal Democrats have won the Chesham and Amersham by-election, triggered following the death of the former Welsh Secretary, Dame Cheryl Gillan, has caught many by surprise.

It is a seat which, until now, has been held continuously by the Conservatives since it was formed in 1974, whilst in 2019, the General Election saw Dame Cheryl retain the seat with a majority of over 16,000.

And yet, this is exactly the kind of seat where perhaps we should have expected an upset, with concerns within the constituency over the impact of the HS2 rail line and the implications of the Government’s proposed reforms to the planning system. Add to that figures from Principal Fish suggesting the seat voted 55% to 45% in favor of remaining in the European Union, and this was clearly ripe Liberal Democrat territory.  

But what was the story of the night?

Firstly, it was the success of the Liberal Democrats, with its candidate, Sarah Green securing a majority of just over 8,000 by winning almost 57% of the votes cast, up by over 30% compared to the party’s performance in 2019.

The Conservative Party saw its share of the vote slum to just over 35%, down by almost 20% compared to 2019.

Labour meanwhile did disastrously, coming fourth, winning just 622 votes, and in the process losing is deposit having won just 1.6% of the votes cast, down 11.2%.

Speaking this morning to GB News, Professor Sir John Curtice of Stratclyde University said of the result: “It has exposed a flank in more traditional middle-class constituencies in London and the south-east, some of whom have contained quite a lot of Remain voters.

"That area is hearing the Tories talking endlessly about levelling up and wondering what really is in it for us?

"And given the opportunity of a by-election to say 'Hang on we are not quite sure about this' - they have taken it!"

And outlining what it could mean for the Conservatives more widely, he continued: “It is a warning to the Conservatives.

"If the Liberal Democrats do begin to take off in the national polls, then the area where they could begin to lose the odd constituency here or there - and it could matter in a close general election - are the seats where the Liberal Democrats are not that far behind the Conservatives.

"We are now looking at a Liberal Democrat Party that above all seems willing to pick up the seats of middle-class voters, some of them traditional Conservative voters.

"They are no longer quite sure about the direction of the Conservative party under Boris Johnson."

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