Batley and Spen – What Next for Keir Starmer?

 The Labour Party is basking in the glory of what many felt was an unlikely victory in the Batley and Spen by-election.

The result  saw Labour’s majority slashed from the 3,525 it secured at the 2019 election to just 323, with Labour’s Kim Leadbetter winning 13,296 votes followed in second place by the Conservatives’ Ryan Stephenson with 12,973. George Galloway for the Workers Party, who had taunted Labour with the prospect of it coming third ironically enough came third himself with 8,264 votes.

In terms of the share of the vote, Labour won 35.3%, well down on the 42.7% it won in 2019. The Conservatives also saw its share dip slightly to 34.4% compared to 36% in 2019.

The BBC’s Political Correspondent, Iain Watson, has noted that there was a swing of 3% from Labour to Conservatives in the by-election which, if reproduced across the country at a general election, would see Labour lose 11 seats.

Speaking to TalkRadio, the polling expert, Professor Sir John Curtice, said of the result: “It tells us that the Labour Party's vote in the north of England is not in meltdown but it doesn't suggest that the Labour Party is anything less than in a fairly difficult political position from which Sir Keir Starmer does need to find a route out.”

For Keir Starmer, the question will be whether, and if so, how much, breathing space the election win provides him to improve Labour’s prospects nationally.

Just prior to the by-election, a  poll by YouGov for Sky News of Labour Party members  found that whilst 54% wanted Starmer to stay as leader, 34% felt it was time for him to go.

55% of party members questioned said they believed Starmer has done well leading the party, while 42% felt he had done badly. YouGov goes on to note: “Despite his efforts to transform the Labour party and its electoral fortunes, only four in ten (40%) think that Sir Keir has “changed the party for the better”. Meanwhile, a quarter (25%) think he has changed the party for the worse, while 30% believe he has not made any real difference.”

YouGov continues: “Labour members are not optimistic about their party’s chances at the next General Election either. Two thirds (65%) think it is unlikely that the party would win the next nationwide ballot, compared to just one in five (21%) who believe the party would emerge victoriously.”

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