Reasons to be Cheerful for Labour?

In the wake of local elections in May and the party losing the Hartlepool Parliamentary by-election, there had been some chatter about a potential leadership challenge to Keir Starmer as Leader of the Labour Party.

Just months later however, the most recent round of polls shows the gap between Labour and the Conservatives getting noticeable smaller.

YouGov’s recent poll, carried out between the 20th and 21st July has the Conservatives on 38%, down six percentage points since its previous poll carried out between 15th and 16th July. Labour meanwhile were up three points to 34%.

Survation last undertook a poll on voting intentions on 23rd July which gives by far the smallest lead for the Conservatives showing them to be on 39% unchanged since its last poll between 19th and 20th July. Labour meanwhile were on 37%, up one point.

Savanta ComRes last questioned the public on voting intentions between 23rd and 25th July. This put the Conservatives on 40%, down one point since its poll conducted between 16th and 18th July. Labour were unchanged on 34%.

Delatpoll’s research covering the period 23rd-26th July again puts the Conservatives on 42%, down one point from its last poll between 17th-20th June, with Labour up two points on 37%.

Finally, Redfield and Wilton Strategies’ poll conducted on 25th July puts the Conservatives on 40%, down two points from 19th July, whilst Labour were up three points on 36%.  

As an average, the above figures would put the Conservatives on 40% with Labour on 36%. Just to put that into some context, at the time of the May local elections, Professor Sir John Curtice of Starthclyde University suggested that the results, had they been replicated in a General Election, would have put the Conservatives on 36% and Labour languishing on 29%.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Buyers Regret Over Brexit?

This week marked five years since the UK voted to leave the European Union, a decision which has shaken British politics in a way that few would have foreseen. To mark the occasion, Savanta ComRes this week published polling suggesting that if the referendum were held today, remain would just win, with 51% of respondents saying they would vote to stay in the EU compared to 49% who would vote to leave. The poll shows that there would be little switching from either side, with 6% of those who voted remain in 2016 saying they would not vote to leave, and 7% of those who originally voted to leave saying they would now vote remain. Savanta ComRes go on to say: “That means the Remain edge in this poll comes from those who did not vote in 2016, with this group being more than twice as likely to vote for Remain (71%) than Leave (29%).” The poll found however that if the public were asked instead to choose between joining the EU or not, 51% would vote not to become a member, whilst 49% w...
Read more

Can Labour Look Forward to a Decade in Power?

Speaking at the start of the year the new Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, spoke of a "decade of national renewal" being the "central, defining purpose" of a future Labour government. Fast forward to today, and for those now in Government the question will be whether the election results can give Labour any confidence at the prospect of a decade in power. Some might conclude that it is absurd to be asking this question, given Labour’s 172 seat majority in the Commons. That is just 7 short of the majority New Labour secured in 1997 which ushered in 13 years of Labour rule. However, dig deeper, and the reality is that Labour’s victory is thin. According to the election results Labour won on Thursday having secured around 9.7 million votes, equivalent to 33.7% of the votes cast. To set that into context, according to House of Commons Library data , that compares to the 13.5 million votes (43.2% vote share) Labour got in 1997. What is more, the total number of ...
Read more

Rishi’s Ratings Sink

Rishi Sunak has registered his weakest favourability ratings since becoming Prime Minister according to new polling by Ipsos Mori. It reports that whilst the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net favourability score of -7, Rishi Sunak’s has sunk to -19. With Boris Johnson continuing to breathe down Rishi Sunak’s neck, Ipsos goes on to note: “More than half of 2019 Conservative voters are favourable to Johnson (55%) while 49% say the same for Sunak. Overall, among 2019 Conservative voters, Johnson scores +29 while Sunak scores +23.   However, Johnson’s lead owes more to falling ratings for Mr Sunak rather than improving ratings for the former PM.” Looking at the parties as a whole, Labour has a net favourability rating of +2 with the Conservatives on -29. When it coms to Brexit, 55% of respondents told Ipsos that leaving the EU had had a negative impact on the country, with just 21% saying it had been positive. It continues: “If we subtract the proportion saying Brexit has...
Read more