Poll to Poll

LucidTalk has published its latest polling in Northern Ireland which suggests that the DUP, currently the largest single party at Stormont, now trails its unionist competitors the Ulster Unionists and the more hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice. The survey of 2,403 adults in Northern Ireland was conducted between 20 th and 23 rd August and questioned them on their voting intentions for the Assembly at Stormont. With the elections due to take place next year, the DUP are now level with the Alliance Party and the SDLP on 13%, down three points since LucidTalk’s last poll in May. The Ulster Unionists are up two points on 16% with the TUV up three points on 14%. Sinn Fein meanwhile remain clearly in the lead on 25%. The headline is unmistakably clear. As Professor Jon Tongue from the University of Liverpool has written for the Belfast Telegraph: “Just 250 days until Michelle O’Neill becomes Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. That’s the unmistakeable forecast from...

The Conservatives have their smallest lead over Labour since January according to the latest polling by Opinium for The Observer. When it comes to headline voting intentions the Conservatives are on 39%, down 3 points compared to two weeks ago, with Labour up 1 point on 36%, giving the Tories a 3 point lead. Assessing what has happened to the Conservative vote over the past few months, Opinium notes: “If we compare the latest polling with the “peak” of the vaccine bounce, May this year when the Conservatives held a 13 point lead, we can see where the Conservative vote is going. “Back in May, the Conservatives were retaining 82% of their vote, with 3% going to Labour, 5% going to other parties, and 10% undecided. Now, they are retaining just 69% of their vote, with 4% going straight to Labour, 11% going to other parties, and 16% undecided. “Meanwhile Labour are now retaining 75% of their 2019 vote, with the biggest movement away from them being voters going directly to the Gree...

New polling from Ipsos Mori provides insights into how the public see the withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan. The pollsters questioned a representative online sample of 1,970 British adults aged 18-75 between 16th-17th August 2021. The key headline shows how split the public are with 39% saying that withdrawing British troops from Afghanistan was the right thing to do compared to 40% who said it was the wrong thing. Attitudes change however when it comes to the withdrawal of US troops, with 47% saying it was wrong for them to pull out and 31% saying it was right for them to leave the country. Looking to the future, 22% said they would support military intervention in the event of the Taliban committing widespread human rights abuses or allowing extremist groups to operate in the country. Ipsos Mori notes that “the most popular options are diplomatic/economic interventions (34%) and humanitarian interventions (32%), with the a third   agreeing with each   of these opt...

Opinium has published its latest fortnightly political report for The Observer. In respect of headline voting intentions, the Conservatives now have a lead over Labour of seven points, down from eight points two weeks ago. The Conservatives are on 42% (down one point) with Labour unchanged on 35%. The poll finds that Boris Johnson’s net approval rating is now -16, down from -13 a fortnight ago, and -8 two weeks before that. Opinium notes that this is “the lowest net approval rating we have recorded since Boris Johnson became Prime Minister.” The polling company notes however that this is not leading to be uptake in support for the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer. It writes: “worse news for Johnson doesn’t automatically mean better news for Stamer. His approval rating is also down this week, with a net score of -11, down from -6 two weeks ago. In total, 28% approve of the job he is doing as Prime Minister (-2) while 39% disapprove (+3).   Similar to Johnson, this is his join...

Ipsos Mori this week published its latest political pulse based on interviews carried out online with a representative sample of 1,009 British adults aged 18+ between 23rd and 26th July 2021 Of note, the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is the only leading politician with a positive net favourability rating, standing, as he does, on +10. In contrast Boris Johnson has a net rating of -20 and Keir Starmer is on -15. Asked to what degree they had a favourable or unfavourable view of the main political parties; respondents gave the Conservatives a net rating of -18 and Labour -16. 44% felt that the Government was doing badly in running the country compared to 28% saying it was doing well. The polling shows that whilst those questioned felt the Government had performed best in respecting of taking the UK out of the European Union it had performed worse at reducing social divisions. Asked if they felt the country was heading in the right direction, whilst 30% said it was, 44% said it was he...