Sinn Fein On Course to Win Stormont Elections

LucidTalk has published its latest polling in Northern Ireland which suggests that the DUP, currently the largest single party at Stormont, now trails its unionist competitors the Ulster Unionists and the more hard-line Traditional Unionist Voice.

The survey of 2,403 adults in Northern Ireland was conducted between 20th and 23rd August and questioned them on their voting intentions for the Assembly at Stormont.

With the elections due to take place next year, the DUP are now level with the Alliance Party and the SDLP on 13%, down three points since LucidTalk’s last poll in May.

The Ulster Unionists are up two points on 16% with the TUV up three points on 14%.

Sinn Fein meanwhile remain clearly in the lead on 25%.

The headline is unmistakably clear. As Professor Jon Tongue from the University of Liverpool has written for the Belfast Telegraph: “Just 250 days until Michelle O’Neill becomes Sinn Fein First Minister of Northern Ireland. That’s the unmistakeable forecast from the latest Belfast Telegraph/Lucid Talk poll. Barring a dramatic change in political fortunes, Sinn Fein seems set to become the largest party in a polity it does not want to exist.”

Despite this however, further data from the poll shows that whilst 42% of those questioned would prefer a united Ireland, 49% prefer remaining part of the United Kingdom.

37% support the idea that there should be a referendum on Northern Ireland’s constitutional position within the next five years, with 29% saying there should never be such a vote. 31% said that there should be a referendum but not within the next five years whilst 3% said they were either not sure or did not have an opinion.

Looking to Westminster, Ciaran Barnes, Chief Reporter for the Belfast Telegraph’s sister publication, Sunday Life, goes on to note: “Boris Johnson and Northern Ireland Secretary Brandon Lewis both remain incredibly unpopular, with 79% and 77% respectively rating their performances as bad or awful.”

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