Conservative Lead Over Labour Shrinks to Three Points

The Conservatives have their smallest lead over Labour since January according to the latest polling by Opinium for The Observer.

When it comes to headline voting intentions the Conservatives are on 39%, down 3 points compared to two weeks ago, with Labour up 1 point on 36%, giving the Tories a 3 point lead.

Assessing what has happened to the Conservative vote over the past few months, Opinium notes: “If we compare the latest polling with the “peak” of the vaccine bounce, May this year when the Conservatives held a 13 point lead, we can see where the Conservative vote is going.

“Back in May, the Conservatives were retaining 82% of their vote, with 3% going to Labour, 5% going to other parties, and 10% undecided. Now, they are retaining just 69% of their vote, with 4% going straight to Labour, 11% going to other parties, and 16% undecided.

“Meanwhile Labour are now retaining 75% of their 2019 vote, with the biggest movement away from them being voters going directly to the Greens.”

With questions remaining over the way the Foreign Secretary, Dominic Raab, has handled the crisis in Afghanistan, just 23% of those polled said they approved of the job he was doing, compared to 41% who disagree, giving him a net approval rating of -18.

48% said they felt that US policy to end its military involvement in Afghanistan was wrong, with just 20% saying it was the right thing to do.

51% said that they felt the UK’s decision to join the US and other members of NATO in invading Afghanistan in 2001 to remove the Taliban regime was the right thing to do, compared to 20% who said it was the wrong thing to do.

32% of respondents said that while invading Afghanistan in the first place was the right thing to do, NATO forces should have stayed until they were needed no longer whilst 10% felt they should have left before they did. Just 9% felt it was both right for NATO to invade and leave the country when they did.

When it comes to the UK’s position in respect of Afghan refugees, Opinium notes: “There is more support than opposition (43% vs 27% respectively) amongst the public on the UK having a dedicated refugee programme for Afghanistan to make it easier for them to live in the UK.”

It continues: “Support for the UK granting refugee status is strongest when we ask about people that gave the UK support during our time in Afghanistan and their families (65%), compared to all high profile Afghans who are opponents of the Taliban (44%) and any family who fears the return of the Taliban and their harsh version of Sharia Law (45%).”

55% of those polled said they felt that with the Taliban now once again in control of Afghanistan the UK is less safe from terrorist attacks.

Opinium goes on to say: “The main two concerns the public have with the situation in Afghanistan is the human rights of women being under threat (35%) and the potential of Afghanistan becoming a launchpad for anti-Western terrorists again (28%). 23% are most concerned about the lives of Afghans who supported the UK.”

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