All Change in Canada and Germany?

On the 15th August Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, called a snap general election to take place on 20th September.

Reporting on the announcement, Reuters noted: “Trudeau, 49, is betting that high vaccination rates against the virus and a post-pandemic economic rebound will help him prolong and strengthen his grip on power.”

With just weeks to go until polling day however, could Trudeau live to regret his decision to take the country to the polls? If data released over the past week is to be believed quite possibly, as the opposition Conservative Party seems to have taken a lead.

According to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s poll tracker the Conservatives, led by Erin O’Toole, are now leading on 34.1%, followed by the Liberal Party under the leadership of the Prime Minister on 31.2%. The New Democrat’s, led by Jagmeet Singh, are, according to the tracker, on 20.1%.

Explaining the support for the Conservatives, the Financial Times has written: “Many of the gains appear to be driven by growing enthusiasm among the traditional Conservative base for O’Toole, who has largely remained unknown to Canadians since his election to the party leadership a year ago, with older voters increasingly signalling their support for the party.”

Over in Germany, voters will go to the polls on 26th September to elect a new Parliament and Chancellor, bringing to an end 16 years of Angela Merkel’s time leading the country.

According to the New Statesman’s poll tracker, the Social Democratic party, led by Olaf Scholz, the current Vice Chancellor in the grand coalition with the CDU/CSU led by Merkel, is currently in the lead on 23.7%, followed by the CDU/CSU coalition led by the Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia, Armin Laschet, on 21.9%. The Greens are third on 17.5% with the liberal Free Democrats on 12%.

In a sign however of the enduring popularity of Merkel, Scholz’s tactics now appear to be to style himself as her natural heir, despite being in a different party. As Politico notes: “The latest tongue-in-cheek campaign ad for Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrats’ (SPD) candidate for the top job, reads "Er kann Kanzlerin” — saying Scholz can be chancellor but using the female form of the word, normally used for Merkel.”

In the UK meanwhile, Opinium’s latest poll for the Observer has seen the Conservative Party increase its lead over Labour to 5 points. The figures put the Conservatives on 40% (up 1 point since 2 weeks ago) with Labour on 35% (down 1 point). The Liberal Democrats are on 7% (down 1 point) with the Greens unchanged on 6%.

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