Labour Lead Conservatives for First Time Since January Says YouGov

Labour HQ would be forgiven for raising a smile as YouGov’s latest poll for The Times gives the party a lead over the Conservatives for the first time since January.

When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster it puts Labour on 35%, up one point since last week. The Conservatives meanwhile are on 33%, down five points.

According to figures from Electoral Calculus, if replicated universally across the country at a General Election it would see Labour as the largest single party in the House of Commons with  283 seats, up 80 from 2019. The Conservatives would lose 97, securing 268 seats.

YouGov’s data also puts the Liberal Democrats on 10%, up two points from last week. This would, according to Electoral Calculus, see the party win 19 seats in a General Election, 8 more than they won in 2019.

In a week that has been dominated by debate around tax and how to finance the health and social care system 46% of respondent to YouGov felt that the amount they paid in tax at the moment for the public services they receive was fair, with 36% saying it was unfair.

Asked if, in principle, they would be happy or not to pay higher taxes to fund more spending on the NHS, 45% said they would be happy compared to 42% who said they would be unhappy. Similarly, 44% said they would be happy to pay higher taxes to fund more spending on social care, with 43% saying they would be unhappy to do so.

Asked specifically about the national insurance changes announced this week, 58% said that it would leave them either a lot or a little worse off. Perhaps most worryingly of all for the Conservatives however 59% said they felt the party did not care about keeping taxes low, compared to just 22% who said the party did care.

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