Labour on the Rise?

Just days after YouGov published polling suggesting that the Conservative Party had lost its lead over Labour for the first time since January, Opinium’s latest  poll shows something similar.

The data, based on questions asked between the 9th and 11th September put the Conservatives and Labour neck and neck on 38% in respect of headline voting intentions for Westminster. Opinium notes that, as with YouGov, it is the first of its polls not to show a Conservative lead since January.

Opinium’s data provides insight into how those who voted Conservative in 2019 would vote now. The figures, with changes since the 13th May which Opinium says was the peak of the party’s vaccine bounce, in brackets show that:

66% would stick with the Conservatives (-16)

5% would switch to Labour (+2)

10% would switch to another party (+5)

18% were undecided how they would vote (+8)

In terms of approval ratings for the Prime Minister, Opinium notes on its twitter feed that  Boris Johnson has fallen to his lowest approval rating since entering Downing Street with a net score of -17. Keir Starmer’s net rating remains as it was last week on -7.

Ahead of the start of the political party conference season next week meanwhile, Ipsos Mori has published its September  political pulse.

In respect of the favourability ratings of leading UK politicians, the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak leads the pack with a net rating of +4. The Prime Minister however has a net rating of -18 whilst Keir Starmer is on -24.  

When it comes to the political parties, the Conservatives have a net favourability rating of -15 with Labour on -19 and the Liberal Democrats on -20. In contrast the Green Party have a net favourability rating of -6.

Meanwhile, Ipsos Mori reports that 44% of those it questioned felt the country was going in the wrong direction compared to 29% who felt it was heading in the right direction. When it comes to Brexit, 43% now believe that leaving the European Union has had a negative impact on the country compared to 30% who felt it had had a positive impact.

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