Food For Thought For All The Parties

With the Conservative faithful continuing to meet at its annual conference in Manchester, Ipsos Mori’s latest Political Monitor provides interesting food for thought for all the parties.

Firstly, in respect of headline voting intentions, the Conservatives are on 39% with Labour on 36%. When it comes to satisfaction with the main two-party leaders although Boris Johnson has a net rating of -12, the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer is performing even worse on -25. The Government as a whole has a net approval rating of -16.

Looking to the next 12 months, 53% of respondents said they felt the economy will get worse, with 31% saying they thought it would improve.

Ipsos Mori then go on to outline the result of a question which posed a number of attributes to those surveyed and asked which of Labour or the Conservatives they applied most to. The results were as follows:

“Keeps its promises”: Conservatives 14%, Labour 18%

“Understands problems facing GB”: Conservatives 30%, Labour 39%

“Has a good team of leaders”: Conservatives 24%, Labour 20%

“Will promise anything to win votes”: Conservatives 66%, Labour 51%

“Divided”: Conservatives 44%, Labour 56%

“Extreme”: Conservatives 22%, Labour 16%

“Looks after people like me”: Conservatives 22%, Labour 33%

“Fit to govern”: Conservatives 34%, Labour 27%

“Out of date”: Conservatives 39%, Labour 41%

“Different to other parties”: Conservatives 42%, Labour 35%

“Concerned about people in need”: Conservatives 17%, Labour 48%

Interestingly elsewhere, whilst 41% said that the Conservatives had the best policies for the country’s businesses, just 17% said Labour had the best policies for business. Asked however which party was best at looking after the interest of working people, 43% said Labour with 21% opting for the Conservatives.

Asked if they felt the Conservative party deserved to be re-elected, 46% said no compared to 32% who said it did deserve to be.

Questioned about who they felt would make the most capable Prime Minister, Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer were tied on 38% each.

Meanwhile, YouGov has published new polling suggesting that the Conservatives and Labour are now on level pegging in the so called ‘Red Wall’ seats. Using its multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of constituency vote intention YouGov notes that the results show “that the Conservatives could be set to lose up to 32 Red Wall seats to Labour, if an election were held tomorrow.”

It goes on to say: “According to our MRP model, estimated using almost 10,000 respondents, the Conservatives have now dropped to 41% in Red Wall vote intention. That’s seven points down on 2019, and two points below their 2017 showing under Theresa May.

“Labour, meanwhile, have gone up two points, from 38% in 2019 to 40% now, just one point behind Johnson’s party. While this is somewhat encouraging news for Keir Starmer, it still represents a 10-point drop for them on their 2017 result.”

YouGov reports that that 54% of respondents said they disapproved of the Government’s record to date, compared to 26% who approved, with 54% saying the Government was handling inflation badly and 55% saying it is handling the economy badly.

It continues: “Boris Johnson’s personal ratings have taken a serious hit too, with 60% now thinking he is doing badly as Prime Minister (vs 35% well), and 41% of the public believing he should stand down as leader of the Conservative party (36% believe he should remain).

“What will make this most uncomfortable for Prime Minister are the figures among 2019 Conservative voters. As of now, over a quarter (27%) believe he is doing a bad job, and almost one-in-five (18%) think he should resign (on the other hand, 69% think he is doing well, and the same figure believe he should remain in post).”

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