What Did the UK Make of the Budget?

Budget week is always a big moment in the political calendar, an opportunity for any Government to take the initiative and demonstrate that its priorities align with those of the country more broadly.

With the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, having delivered his budget and spending review on Wednesday, by Thursday Sky News had published polling by Opinium on how people had responded.

It found that the Conservatives maintain a healthy lead when people were asked about who was best at managing the economy. 40% said Boris Johnson and Rishi Sunak, with 25% saying the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer and the Shadow Chancellor, Rachel Reeves.

Overall, 39% said they approved of the Budget, with 21% disapproving of it. 28% said the Budget would have a negative impact on their finances, with 18% saying it would be positive for them. 46% said the measures announced would make no difference to them.

Importantly for the Conservatives, 38% said they felt the Budget was fair, compared to 30% who think it is unfair.

Opinium has now also published its latest fortnightly political polling for The Observer.

On headline voting intentions, the Conservatives are on 40%, down one point since two weeks ago, with Labour on 35%, down two points.

Rishi Sunak would be forgiven for having a wry smile on his face this morning as Opinium notes that: “he continues to be Britain’s most popular politician, with 41% saying they approve of the job he is doing, up two on a fortnight ago, with 28% disapproving, down 4.”

Compared to data gathered at the time of the last budget in March, 21% said that the state of the economy was “good”, up from 13% in March. 46% said the state of the economy was bad, well down from the 64% who thought the same about the economy at the time of the last Budget.

That said, it is not all good news, with 41% of respondents saying they felt the economy would get worse over the next 12 months compared to 30% who felt it would get better. Similarly, 32% said they felt their personal finances would get worse over the next year, compared to 21% who thought they would get worse.

38% said they felt taxes were too high, with 37% saying they were ‘about right’ and 16% feeling taxes were too low. When it comes to public spending, 29% thought it was too high, 33% said current spending levels were about right and 26% thought spending at present was too low.

Asked about the way they thought Brexit was affecting various aspects of life in the UK, 44% said it was having a bad effect on the UK economy, compared to 25% who felt Brexit was having a good effect on the economy. 53% also felt that leaving the EU has had a bad impact on prices in shops, with 13% saying it has had a good impact. Those questioned were also likely to say that leaving the EU has had more of a bad impact than good when it came to things such as imports to the UK and their own financial situation.

Meanwhile, YouGov’s polling on the Budget for The Times reported that 50% of those questioned expected it to make little difference to themselves and their families, while 42% said the same about the country as a whole. YouGov notes however that: “In both cases, however, people are substantially more likely to say it would make things worse off (31% for family, 23% for country) than better off (4% and 13%, respectively).” As climate talks beginning in Glasgow, 43% said they felt the Budget would make little difference to the country meetings its net zero objectives.

When it comes to recovery from the economic hit the country has faced as a result of the pandemic, 40% said the Budget will not do enough to help the country compared to 22% who thought it would.

On the question of fairness, 33% of those surveyed thought the Budget was fair, 24% said it was not whilst 43% said they were not sure at the present time.

When it comes to the Government’s and the Chancellor’s own handling of the economy, YouGov goes on to note that: “On Sunak’s performance as chancellor, the public is more positive (38%) than negative (26%). However, this does represent a significant deterioration in reviews since March, when the majority of Britons (55%) said he was doing a good job.

“Similarly, confidence in the government’s handling of the economy has slipped since earlier this year. In March people said the government were doing well by 48% to 39%. Now, those numbers have reversed, with just 39% saying they are still doing well and 47% saying they are doing badly.”

Looking to the next 12 months, 44% of respondents said they felt their household finances would get worse, up from 30% at the time of the Budget in March. Just 12% said they felt their personal finances would get better with 36% feeling they would remain the same.

When it comes to the economy more broadly, 50% expect things to get worse over the next year, up from 45% who said the same in March. 22% feel the economy will get better (down 10 points from March) with 18% believing that the economy will remain much the same as it is now.