Has BoJo Lost His MoJo?

In 2019 Boris Johnson was elected leader of the Conservative Party for two reasons. Firstly, to get Brexit done and secondly to appeal to parts of the electorate that no other Conservative could reach.

Having got Brexit done and having secured an 80 seat majority in the General Election two years ago, the question that now arises after a bad week for the Government is whether, for the Conservative Party, Boris Johnson has outlived his usefulness. If polling this week is to be believed, quite possibly.

Redfield and Wilton’s latest poll conducted on 8th December gives Labour a 4 point lead when it comes to headline voting intentions with the party on 38% (up 2 points from 6th December) and the Conservatives on 34%, down 4 points.

The poll went on to find that 63% of respondents felt that the Prime Minister should resign if it is confirmed that the Christmas Party took place in Downing Street last year at a time when the Government had issued coronavirus restrictions which prevented such gatherings. In addition to 81% of Labour voters, a plurality (46%) of Conservative voters, too, said that Boris Johnson should resign in this situation.

Survation’s poll for the Daily Mirror conducted between the 8th and 9th December gave Labour a 6 point lead, with the party on 40% (up 1 point from 1st December) whilst the Conservatives were on 34%, down 2 points.

Survation goes on to note: “66% of the public and significantly 60% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 said that Keir Starmer’s accusation  “the current Government believes there is one rule for them and another for everyone else” was closer to their view than the opposite.

“Despite various governments in the past being embroiled in sleaze allegations, 48%, believe the current Government has lower standards and principles than governments in the past. This includes 21% of Conservatives voters and 60% of Labour voters.

“In terms of “cut through” 80% of the public told Survation they have followed the story to some degree.”

YouGov’s latest poll for The Times, also conducted between the 8th and 9th December, puts Labour on 37%, up 4 points compared to 2nd December. The Conservatives are down 3 points on 33%. Interestingly, the detailed tables show that 24% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 said they now did not know how they would vote, meaning Labour has more work to do to persuade such voters to jump ship and support them instead.

Meanwhile, a poll by Focal Data for Times Radio has given Labour an 8-point lead with the party on 41%, compared to the Conservatives on 33%.  

With 53% of voters having also told an Opinium poll for Sky News that the Prime Minister should resign, Boris Johnson’s future is clearly now an open question.  

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