Is Boris Johnson’s Re-Launch Dead on Arrival?

As Boris Johnson prepares for a New Year ‘relaunch’ he’ll be reading somewhat soberly recent polling.

Opinium’s latest data for The Observer is based on a survey of 1,904 UK adults carried out between 21st and 23rd December.

When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour retains a lead on 39% with the Conservatives on 32%. Meanwhile, fresh from its victory in the North Shropshire by-electio,n the Lib Dems are on 11%, the highest vote share Opinium has given the party since the 2019 general election.

When it comes to approval ratings, Boris Johnson now has a net rating of -31%, marginally better than his -35% two weeks ago. However, Opinium notes that this remains “comfortably among the worst we have recorded for him since he became prime minister.” Keir Starmer has a net approval rating of +4% as Leader of the Labour Party.

Asked who they felt would make the best Prime Minister, 30% of respondents said Starmer with 24% opting for Boris Johnson.

Digging deeper there are further signs of difficulties for the Conservative Party. On the key measure of who would be best to handle the economy, the same proportion (31%) say a Labour Government headed by Keir Starmer as said a Conservative Government headed by Boris Johnson. Equally worrying for Conservative HQ will be that on immigration, more of those questioned (29%) said they felt Labour would handle the issue better than said the same about the Conservatives (25%).

Opinium has also published polling for the Sunday Mail in Scotland conducted between the 15th and 22nd December. When it comes to headline voting intentions for Westminster, the results, with changes from September in bracket, were as follows: SNP 48% (-3), Conservatives 17% (-4), Labour 22% (+5), Lib Dem 7% (+2) and Green 3% (+1).

As reported by The Sunday Times, a significant poll by Focaldata for it of just over 24,000 UK adults using the comprehensive MRP methodology  spelt trouble for Downing Street.

The poll gives Labour, on 40%, an 8-point lead over the Conservatives on 32%. The paper notes that as a result: “It predicted Labour would win 338 seats and the Conservatives 237. This would represent the Conservatives’ lowest haul since Michael Howard led the party in the 2005 general election.”

The Sunday Times went on to note that the SNP would win 48 of the 59 seats available north of the border in the Commons, with the Lib Dems winning 11, the same they secured in 2019.

If applied universally, such figures would see Boris Johnson losing his Uxbridge and South Ruislip seat along with five other cabinet ministers.

Similar research by Survation for the campaign group 38 Degrees had almost identical findings. It notes: “Vote share projections in the poll show 41% for Labour, 35% for the Conservative Party and 9% for the Lib Dems,

“MRP analysis from the figures indicate the Conservatives would win 255 seats, - a net loss of 111. Labour would return 309 seats, just 11 short of a majority and with a net gain of 107 seats on 2019 totals. SNP success would cause Conservatives to lose all their seats in Scotland

“Five Cabinet ministers, including the Prime Minister, could lose their seats. Other Cabinet ministers projected to lose their seats include George Eustice, Simon Hart, Alister Jack and Alok Sharma.

“Of 40 key Red Wall seats identified and currently held by Tories, only three (Dudley North, Morley & Outwood and Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland) are projected to be held by the Conservatives.”

Meanwhile, with the ‘levelling agenda’ seen as a key part of Boris Johnson’s agenda, polling by YouGov finds that whilst 24% have never heard of the term, an additional 50% have heard it but either have no idea what it means or are not completely sure.

YouGov goes on to note: “Only 7% of the public overall think that levelling up will lead to more money being spent in their communities, with most (44%) saying there would be no difference. Around one in six (18%) think they would get less money as a result of the fund. Three in ten (31%) didn’t know whether the fund would lead to more or less spending where they live.”

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