Poll to Poll

Opinium has published its latest polling for The Observer with the fieldwork carried out between 27 th and 28 th January. On headline voting intentions, Labour’s lead has been cut in half since Opinium’s last poll two weeks ago. It puts Labour on 39% (down 2 points) with the Conservatives on 34% (up 3 points). When it comes to approval ratings for the main party leaders, Boris Johnson now has a net rating of -38%, with Labour Leader, Keir Starmer on +1%. Asked how much they trusted Boris Johnson, 73% said they had not much trust in him compared to 50% who said the same about Keir Starmer. In a sign of a narrowing of the Conservative’s lead when it comes to the crucial issue of the economy, whilst 35% said it was best placed to handle the economy, 32% said a Labour Government led by Keir Starmer would best handle it. 63% now say Boris Johnson should resign as Leader of the Conservative Party, with just 26% saying the same about Keir Starmer. 61% believe Boris Johnson will...

IPSOS Mori has published its latest Political Monitor providing further headaches for 10 Downing Street. When it comes to headline voting intentions, Labour how has a 9-point lead, polling on 40%, with the Conservatives on 31%. When it comes to satisfaction ratings, Boris Johnson now has a net rating of -46, with the Government has a whole having a net rating of -42. In contrast, the Labour Leader, Keir Starmer, has a net satisfaction rating of -15. 61% of those polled now feel the Conservative Party should change its leader before the next General Election, including 35% of Conservative supporters. 37% of all those polled said the same about Labour, including 28% of Labour supporters. Gideon Skinner, Head of Politics at Ipsos MORI, has said of the findings: “The damage to Boris Johnson in public opinion continues as seven in ten Britons tell us they are unhappy with the job he is doing as Prime Minister – another month-on-month fall. “The Conservatives are falling behind L...

Redfield Wilton Strategies has today published some fascinating polling from across 40 so called ‘red wall’ seats which the Conservatives won from Labour at the 2019 General Election and, in the case of Hartlepool, a by-election in 2021. The poll was conducted between 19 th and 20 th January. It shows that: 1.      The Conservatives are polling significantly behind Labour, not just under Boris Johnson but also in the hypothetical situation of one of the likely contenders to replace him being leader instead. It notes that: “The Conservative Party is 20% to 27% behind the Labour Party, worse than their results in 2015 or 2017, with all other potential leaders apart from Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson.”   2.      Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, the two reasons cited by majorities for doing so were support for getting Brexit done (53%) and opposition to Jeremy Corbyn (53%). 3.      33% of red wall Conserv...

As questions over Boris Johnson’s future at Number 10 continue unabated, YouGov has today tweeted a fascinating series of polling data. When it comes to headline voting intentions, polling for The Times conducted between 13 th and 14 th January puts Labour on 39%, down 1 point from its last poll carried out between 12 th and 13 th January. The Conservatives meanwhile are up 2 points on 31%. It shows also that 63% of people now think the Government is doing badly, 64% think Boris Johnson should stand down and overall, 73% believe he is doing a bad job as Prime Minister. 28% now think Keir Starmer is likely to become Prime Minister at some point, up from 19% who said the same in November. With the idea that divided parties never win elections as true today as ever, 76% of those polled now think the Conservative Party is divided, up from 57% in November. In contrast, 39% say the same about the Labour Party, down from 47% in November. All that said, just 24% feel Labour is “...

Opinium has published its latest polling for The Observer which continues to make for grim reading for Number 10 and Boris Johnson in particular. When it comes to headline voting intentions Labour enjoys a 10 point lead over the Conservatives, up from 5 a week ago. Labour are now on 41% (up 2 points) with the Conservatives on 31% (down 3 points). Within seats gained by the Conservatives at the 2019 election, just 28% say they will vote for the party, with 45% opting for Labour. The Prime Minister’s net approval rating has fallen to -42, down from -24 a week ago. This, Opinium has noted, is same as the worst score it recorded for Theresa May in May 2019. In seats that the Conservatives gained in 2019 his net approval rating is at -43. Labour Leader, Keir Starmer’s net approval rating is +4, almost unchanged from the +3 Opinium recorded last week. In seats the Conservatives won in 2019 his net rating is +2. Asked who they think would make the best Prime Minister, 21% say Boris J...

At the end of a very bumpy week for the Prime Minister, today’s Friday poll by YouGov for The Times will make for grim reading for him and the wider Conservative Party. When it comes to headline voting intentions, the poll, conducted between the 12 th and 13 th January, puts the Conservatives on 29%, up 1 point compared to YouGov’s last poll between the 11 th and 12 th January.   Labour meanwhile ends the week on 40%, up 2 points. Just to put this into some sort of context, according to a paper by the House of Commons Library, 29%, if replicated at a election, would represent an even worse share of the vote for the Conservative Party than the disaster it faced in 1997 when it secured 31.5% of the votes cast. What will be particularly worrying for the Conservative Party is that according to this poll around 30% of those who voted Conservative at the 2019 election plan to vote for another party. The polling finds also that just 22% of respondents now feel that Boris Joh...