The Polls Don’t Get Any Better for Boris Johnson

Redfield Wilton Strategies has today published some fascinating polling from across 40 so called ‘red wall’ seats which the Conservatives won from Labour at the 2019 General Election and, in the case of Hartlepool, a by-election in 2021. The poll was conducted between 19th and 20th January.

It shows that:

1.     The Conservatives are polling significantly behind Labour, not just under Boris Johnson but also in the hypothetical situation of one of the likely contenders to replace him being leader instead. It notes that: “The Conservative Party is 20% to 27% behind the Labour Party, worse than their results in 2015 or 2017, with all other potential leaders apart from Rishi Sunak and Boris Johnson.”

 

2.     Among those who voted Conservative in 2019, the two reasons cited by majorities for doing so were support for getting Brexit done (53%) and opposition to Jeremy Corbyn (53%).


3.     33% of red wall Conservative voters say the reason they voted Conservative now no longer applies.


4.     60% of red wall Conservative voters say Brexit is still a work in progress, although 51% now say that: “as voters, where someone stands or stood on Brexit does not significantly matter to them.” Redfield Wilton goes on to say: “By contrast, where someone stands or stood on the coronavirus pandemic is seen as significant for a strong majority of the ‘Red Wall’ public (56%) and its 2019 Conservative voters (59%).”

Survation’s latest poll for 38 Degrees gives Labour a 10 point lead, with the party polling on 43%, ahead of the Conservatives on 33%. It goes on to note: “Over half of Conservative voters in 2019 now see the current government as lacking accountability (52%), while over 6 in 10 think the government is dishonest (64%).”

When it comes to Boris Johnson personally, 68% of those who voted Conservative in 2019 say that he is dishonest.

North of the border, polling by Savanta ComRes for The Scotsman puts support for Scotland becoming an independent country at 46%, the same proportion which would oppose independence.

Meanwhile, UK wide, Savnata ComRes’s latest political poll puts the Conservatives on 32%, with Labour 9 points ahead on 41%.

When it comes to net favourability ratings the Prime Minister is on -37, the Government as a whole is on -33, Keir Starmer is on -4 and the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is on +10.

In respect of who would make the best Prime Minister, 36% said Keir Starmer with 28% opting for Boris Johnson.

Commenting on the findings, Chris Hopkins, Political Research Director at Savanta ComRes has said: “Every poll seems to get worse and worse for this ailing Prime Minister, and this one is no different, with another sizable slump in net favourability for both the PM and the government, scores that are so markedly different from just two months ago. Partygate has brought this government to its knees and Conservative backbenchers are sensing the opportunity to clean house, with many in line to lose their seats if the current Labour poll lead were to play out at a General Election.”

“If there’s one crumb of comfort for the Conservatives here it is that Keir Starmer is not running away in the popularity stakes. His net favourability is well behind Rishi Sunak’s, and only marginally ahead of some other Cabinet ministers (many of whom have considerably lower recognition) and therefore there’s plenty of opportunity for the Conservatives to turn things around; but only they can decide whether Boris Johnson is the person they trust to do it.”

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