Poll to Poll

YouGov’s new MRP model out today will make for grim reading for Conservatives across the country. The model is based on interviews held with over 15,045 voters across England between 19 th and 27 th May, and 2,086 voters in Wales between 28 th April and 27 th May. The headline suggests that of the 88 constituencies which the Conservatives either (a) won from Labour in 2019, or (b) currently hold with a majority of less than 15 points over Labour, just three, under this model, would remain Conservative: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North. Under this scenario the Prime Minister would also lose his London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip. To add to the party’s woes, YouGov goes on to note: “Looking at ‘Blue Wall’ areas where Labour are principle the challengers to the Conservatives, and there is yet more pain for the governing party. Every seat in London and the South under the battleground definition falls to Keir Starmer’s party: from Iain Duncan-Smith’s constituency of ...

IPSOS Mori has published its latest Political Monitor . It gives Labour a 6-point lead when it comes to headline voting intentions, with the party on 39% and the Conservatives on 33%.   When it comes to the economy, 72% of respondents said they felt it would get worse over the next year with just 15% expecting it to improve. Whilst the Conservatives lead Labour when it comes to which party voters think is best placed to grow the economy (36% say Conservative, 27% say Labour), the positions are switched on the cost of living. 37% say Labour is best placed to reduce their family’s cost of living, with 22% saying the same about the Conservatives. 39% say Labour is best positioned to ‘level-up’ the country, with just 18% saying the same about the Conservatives. Savanta ComRes has also published its latest polling data. It puts the Conservatives on 34%, unchanged since its last poll carried out between 6 th and 8 th May. Labour meanwhile are up 2 points on 41%. Keir Starm...

At the start of the week the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer, took the unusual step of making clear that if he is fined for having breached COVID regulations last year during so called ‘beergate’ he would step down as leader. Having made such a step, has the decision by Durham police to re-open the investigation into the event dented Labour’s recent polling leads? If YouGov is to be believed, not really. According to its latest poll on Westminster voting intentions, conducted between 10 th and 11 th May, Labour’s lead over the Conservative has actually increased. It puts Labour on 38%, up 2 points from the week before. The Conservatives meanwhile are down 2 points on 33%. After a successful set of local election results, the Liberal Democrats are up 2 points on 12%. Further data from YouGov continues to show that Starmer remains the preferred candidate for Prime Minister. According to its polling , 33% believe he would make the best Prime Minister, with 26% opting for Boris Jo...

As the dust settles on local elections across the UK, the inevitable question on everyone’s lips is what it all means when it comes to the General Election in two years’ time. To assist with this, the polling guru, Professor Sir John Curtice has produced for the BBC his projected national share of the vote – in essence what the local election results would mean if they were replicated across the country at a General Election. The results, with how they differ from the 2019 election results in brackets, are as follows: Labour: 35% (up 3 points) Conservative: 30% (down 14 points) Liberal Democrats: 19% (up 8 points) The headlines from Professor Curtice for each party are as follows: The Conservatives are “now electorally weaker than at any point since Boris Johnson won his majority of 80 in 2019.” For Labour he cautions that its projected vote share is “no better than what the party achieved in 2018 when Jeremy Corbyn was still party lead.” Turning his attention to th...

Redfield and Wilton Strategies’ has published its latest weekly polling , its final poll ahead of Thursday’s local elections.   It continues to show Labour in a commanding position on 41%, down one point from last week. The Conservatives meanwhile are on 33%, down 1 point. In respect of issues of most importance to those polled, it notes: “For the first time in several weeks, healthcare (57%, up 3%) is slightly ahead of the economy (56%, down 1%) as the issue that the most respondents consider likely to determine how they would vote in the next General Election. When asked to select up to three issues which would most determine how they would vote in a General Election, if there were to be one tomorrow, respondents also select education (33%, up 5%), taxation (27%, no change), housing (24%, up 2%), and immigration (20%, down 3%).” In respect of competency, the Government has a net rating of -35%, down 2 points since last week. The Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, has a personal...