Has ‘Beergate’ Dented Labour’s Polling Lead?

At the start of the week the Labour Leader, Sir Keir Starmer, took the unusual step of making clear that if he is fined for having breached COVID regulations last year during so called ‘beergate’ he would step down as leader.

Having made such a step, has the decision by Durham police to re-open the investigation into the event dented Labour’s recent polling leads?

If YouGov is to be believed, not really. According to its latest poll on Westminster voting intentions, conducted between 10th and 11th May, Labour’s lead over the Conservative has actually increased. It puts Labour on 38%, up 2 points from the week before. The Conservatives meanwhile are down 2 points on 33%. After a successful set of local election results, the Liberal Democrats are up 2 points on 12%.

Further data from YouGov continues to show that Starmer remains the preferred candidate for Prime Minister. According to its polling, 33% believe he would make the best Prime Minister, with 26% opting for Boris Johnson.

In addition, YouGov finds that 41% believe Starmer is principled, compared to just 14% who say the same about Boris Johnson. 40% say the Labour Leader is competent, compared to 25% saying the same about the Prime Minister.

31% of those questioned said they felt Keir Starmer was trustworthy. Just 12% said the same about Boris Johnson.

That said, Starmer clearly has work to do to persuade the public to put their trust in him to get the keys to Downing Street. Whilst 33% say he is likeable, this compared to 36% saying the same about the Prime Minister. Similarly, a higher proportion of those questioned (31%) believe Boris Johnson is strong compared to the Labour Leader (25%).

A broadly similar picture emerges in polling by Ipsos Mori. It finds that whilst 39% of those questioned are confident that Keir Starmer followed all CVOID regulations properly. 48% are not. In contrast, just 28% are confident that Boris Johnson has followed COVID regulations appropriately with 67% saying they are not confident.

36% say that the Labour Leader should resign generally without ‘beergate’ being mentioned This, according to Ipsos Mori, rises to 40% specifically if he is found to have broken Covid rules and issued a Fixed Penalty Notice. In contrast, 51% now support the Prime Minister resigning.

In what should be a warning to Labour however not to make so much of so called ‘partygate’, Ipsos Mori notes: “However, despite these numbers, the evidence suggests that other issues are far more important than ‘beergate’ or ‘partygate’ in terms of how the public judge Johnson and Starmer.

“When presented with a list of 15 factors and asked which were ‘very important’ in informing their view of Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer, the top answers for both related to how they would address the cost of living (Johnson 47% and Starmer 42%), with their following, or otherwise, of Covid regulations way down the list (10th for Johnson and 12th for Starmer.)”

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