Grim Reading for the Conservatives This Weekend

YouGov’s new MRP model out today will make for grim reading for Conservatives across the country.

The model is based on interviews held with over 15,045 voters across England between 19th and 27th May, and 2,086 voters in Wales between 28th April and 27th May.

The headline suggests that of the 88 constituencies which the Conservatives either (a) won from Labour in 2019, or (b) currently hold with a majority of less than 15 points over Labour, just three, under this model, would remain Conservative: Ashfield, Bassetlaw, and Dudley North. Under this scenario the Prime Minister would also lose his London seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

To add to the party’s woes, YouGov goes on to note: “Looking at ‘Blue Wall’ areas where Labour are principle the challengers to the Conservatives, and there is yet more pain for the governing party. Every seat in London and the South under the battleground definition falls to Keir Starmer’s party: from Iain Duncan-Smith’s constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green, to Steve Baker’s seat in Wycombe, to the marginal bellwether of Southampton Itchen, Labour sweep the board.

“Every Conservative seat in Wales under our battleground definition would be lost – including one to Plaid Cymru, who are currently picking up Ynys Mon. The other eight include the former Labour heartlands of Wrexham, Bridgend, and Delyn.”

Of note, the modelling suggests that the Conservative vote is holding up better in general in battleground constituencies in the North East and East Midlands (-11pts) than it is in the South (-14pts) or East of England (-13pts).

But could it be worse even than this for the Conservatives? Potentially so. James Johnson, co-founder of J L Partners polling, who formally looked after polling at Downing Street, has tweeted: “Remember that MRP does not pick up tactical voting or local seat effects. Tactical voting helps Labour and the Lib Dems at the moment, so it’s highly likely that the current picture for the Conservatives is even worse than this polling indicates.”

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