Electoral Headaches Aplenty for Conservative HQ

Whether it’s the booing he faced when arriving for the Queen’s Platinum Jubilee service at St Paul’s Cathedral,  or being challenged by a Mumsnet user as to why he was a “habitual liar”, Boris Johnson will have been left in no doubt this week about the slump he now faces.

More importantly however will be that backbench Conservative MPs will have clocked it all as they consider if now is the right time to trigger a vote of confidence in his leadership of the party.

But what will be worrying backbenchers the most will be the prospect, ultimately of them losing their seats. Later this month, by elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton will provide a glimpse into the electoral damage Boris Johnson might be causing for the Conservatives.

The Devon seat of Tiverton and Honiton should, in theory, be safe for the Conservatives. In 2019 the party secured a majority of over 24,000. And yet, there are nerves at Conservative HQ.

One only has to look at North Shropshire to see why. In 2019 the Conservatives won the seat with a similar majority of almost 23,000, only to see them loosing it at the 2021 by-election to the Liberal Democrats, with a  majority of almost 6,000.

In his analysis ahead of the by-election,  Ben Walker, senior data journalist at the New Statesman somewhat ominously for the Conservatives says of Tiverton and Honiton: “The seat should be an easier win for the Lib Dems than North Shropshire was.”

More worryingly still for Downing Street are the prospects for the Conservatives in Wakefield, one of the infamous ‘Red Wall’ seats which gave Boris Johnson his sweeping majority.

In 2019 the party took the seat with a majority of almost 3,500, having won a little over 47% of the vote. According to new polling in the seat however the party now faces a catastrophic reversal of fortunes.

The poll, carried out by JL Partners, puts the Conservatives on just 28%, behind Labour on 48%.  60% said they felt either ‘quite’ or ‘very’ negatively about Boris Johnson.

More broadly, 56% said they had a negative view of the Conservative Party, compared to 44% who said the same about Labour.

Looking at both seats, it is little wonder therefore that Ben Walker at the New Statesman has concluded: “The trouble for the Tories at present is not confined to Blue Wall or Red Wall: it’s everywhere, wall or not.”

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